Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office first bought Natera (NTRA) in 2022 at about $44. On October 16, 2026 the stock closed at $393.44, about 9x his first buy, and it is his largest reported position. We read every Duquesne 13F filing on SEC EDGAR and lined them up against Natera's quarterly results. They show how he built the position: small at first, a year of patience, and size only after the business and the price both confirmed.
Data: Duquesne Family Office 13F-HR filings (SEC EDGAR, CIK 1536411), Q3 2022 to Q2 2026; Natera quarterly results from its 8-K filings and earnings calls. Prices are quarter-end closes. Results marked (inference) are BullishAgent's own reading. Not investment advice.
The short version
- He bought after the crash, not during it. The first buy came six months after a short-seller report took the stock from $92 to $26.
- He waited a year. Through all of 2023 the share count didn't change while NTRA moved sideways in a $35–64 range.
- He sized up on proof, at higher prices. His two biggest adds came around $91 and $127, each right after a quarter showing sharply better margins.
- He trims into strength and re-adds on dips inside the uptrend. He never averaged down on a loser.
- It has been 12–18% of his 13F book since late 2024.
The position, quarter by quarter
| Quarter end | Shares | Change | % of book | NTRA price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | 414,955 | new | 1.0% | 43.82 |
| Q4 2022 | 643,530 | +55% | 1.3% | 40.17 |
| Q1 2023 | 893,030 | +39% | 2.1% | 55.52 |
| Q2–Q4 2023 | 893,030 | no change | 1.4–1.7% | 44–63 |
| Q1 2024 | 1,929,380 | +116% | 4.0% | 91.46 |
| Q2 2024 | 1,974,880 | +2% | 7.3% | 108.29 |
| Q3 2024 | 3,566,850 | +81% | 15.3% | 126.95 |
| Q4 2024 | 3,566,850 | no change | 15.2% | 158.30 |
| Q1 2025 | 3,402,330 | −5% | 15.7% | 141.41 |
| Q2 2025 | 3,085,190 + 114.5K calls | −9% | 12.8% | 168.94 |
| Q3 2025 | 3,214,532 + 100K calls | +4% | 12.7% | 160.97 |
| Q4 2025 | 2,511,357 | −22% | 12.8% | 229.09 |
| Q1 2026 | 3,063,606 | +22% | 18.1% | 199.99 |
| Q2 2026 | 3,186,306 | +4% | 16.6% ($865M) | 271.45 |
How he built it
1. The entry came after the damage. On March 9, 2022, Hindenburg Research published a short report on Natera. The stock fell from about $92 to a low of $26.10, and Natera publicly rejected the report. Duquesne's first purchase shows up at the end of Q3 2022, six months later, at only about 1% of the book. A starter position, not a bet.
2. A full year of no adds. He got to 893,030 shares in Q1 2023 and then left the count unchanged for the rest of the year, while NTRA built a base between roughly $35 and $64. The stock wasn't proving anything yet, so the position stayed small.
3. The big buys came after the breakout. In Q1 2024 he more than doubled the position with the stock around $91, already about twice his first buy. In Q3 2024 he added another 81% around $127. The position went from 1.7% of the book to 15% because it was working, not because it got cheaper.
4. Trim into strength, re-add inside the trend. He sold 22% at the end of 2025 with the stock near $229, then bought it back near $200 the next quarter while the uptrend held. That is adding to a winner on a dip. At no point did he add while the stock was making new lows.
Small when unproven. Big when proven. Never big on a loser.
What the business showed
Natera still mostly loses money, so profits weren't the story. Margins were.
| Quarter | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | $261M | 45.2% | −43% |
| Q4 2023 | $311M | 51.4% | −27% |
| Q1 2024 | $368M | 56.7% | −20% |
| Q2 2024 | $413M (+58% y/y) | 58.8% | −11% |
| Q3 2024 | $440M (+64% y/y) | 61.8% | −9% |
| Q4 2025 | $666M (+40% y/y) | 67.1% | −3% (first net profit, +$47M) |
| Q2 2026 | $753M (+38% y/y) | 64.5% | −10% |
The driver is Signatera, Natera's blood test that checks cancer patients for recurrence. According to the company's filings and calls:
- The cost to run each test kept falling.
- The average price per test rose, to about $1,100 by Q4 2024.
- Test volume grew about 60% a year, and Medicare kept widening coverage.
With price and volume both rising, revenue grew faster than volume, which is what pricing power looks like.
The timing lines up with his buys (inference from the dates):
- The Q4 2023 report (late February 2024) showed gross margin jumping from 45% to 51%. That quarter he more than doubled the position.
- The Q2 2024 report (August 2024) showed a 59% gross margin and the operating loss cut to −11%. That quarter he added 81%.
He didn't wait for earnings. He bought the turn in unit economics on a product that already worked, and the price breakout arrived at the same time. Each one confirmed the other.
He didn't buy earnings. He bought the turn in margins, confirmed by price.
A note on dilution
Natera's share count grew about 26% from mid-2023. Dilution is usually a warning sign, but here the money was raised while margins were improving fast. Dilution by itself isn't the problem. Dilution into a deteriorating business is (inference).
Caveats
- A 13F is a snapshot. It shows holdings on the last day of each quarter. It doesn't show trades within the quarter or his real cost basis, so the prices above are quarter-end closes, not his fills.
- It isn't his whole portfolio. A 13F covers only US-listed long stocks and options. Druckenmiller is mainly a macro investor, and his bonds, currencies, futures, shorts and cash don't appear. His reported book was about $5.2B at the end of Q2 2026, up from about $3.4B in Q1. Most of that jump looks like new money moved into stocks rather than return (inference).
- The next filing is due around November 14. The Q3 2026 13F will show whether he held through this year's run from $271 to near $400.
Sources
- Duquesne Family Office 13F filings (SEC EDGAR, CIK 1536411)
- Why is Natera stock down today? (InvestorPlace, March 2022)
- Natera refutes short report (Business Wire, March 15, 2022)
- GenomeWeb coverage of the Hindenburg drop
- Natera Q4 2023 results (SEC 8-K)
- Natera Q4 2023 slides
- Natera Q3 2024 results (SEC 8-K)
- Natera Q4 2024 earnings call (AllMind)
- Natera Q4 2024 earnings (MarketBeat)