Based on US stock returns through the Oct 16, 2026 close. Weekly breadth counts all US stocks; "liquid names" are stocks over $5 with market cap over $100M, average volume over 1M shares and an average daily range (ATR) over 2.4%. Inferences are labelled (inference).
Market backdrop
| ETF | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | +0.1% | +2.7% | +7.5% |
| QQQ | -1.0% | +2.1% | +9.4% |
| IWM | -5.3% | -8.0% | -1.9% |
| SMH | -3.7% | -3.0% | +16.3% |
| IGV | -1.4% | +12.4% | +22.6% |
| XLE | +5.8% | +18.3% | +24.0% |
This was a risk-off week.
- Across 5,614 US stocks, 1,298 fell 10% or more this week and only 167 rose 10% or more. The average stock fell -4.2%.
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell -11.4% for the week, its eighth straight losing session, and closed 23.9% below its June 22 record. Reports tied the selloff to rising global bond yields, bets on another Fed rate hike, and doubts about how the AI buildout gets funded. Coverage also described a rotation into defensive sectors and energy (Strategitz, BNN Bloomberg, Motley Fool).
- Rate backdrop: the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh raised rates in September, its first hike in over three years, and signalled at least one more (Herald Corp). A Friday market wrap was headlined "Warsh keeps Fed hike open" (Benzinga).
- Energy was the only major ETF clearly green on 1M. Small caps (IWM) are red on 1M, 3M and 6M.
Weak groups (liquid-name averages, 1W):
- Computer Hardware: -18.5% (1M -18.9%)
- Electrical Equipment & Parts: -16.3%
- Communication Equipment: -15.6% (3M -17.9%)
- Semiconductors: -15.0% (1M -8.2%)
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts: -14.6%
- Capital Markets: -11.0% (1M -13.7%)
- Uranium: -10.2%. Renewable Utilities: -9.8%. Solar: -8.1% (3M -31.6%). Biotechnology: -8.0% (1M -12.9%)
- Sector ETFs: URA 1M -17.0%, TAN 1M -9.7%, XBI 1M -8.8%, GDX 1M -8.6%
Weekly themes
1. Restaurants, apparel and retail (consumer rebound)
Breadth:
- Restaurants: 6/48 (12.5%) up >=10% in 1W, and 5/48 up >=25% in 1M. Liquid-name average 1W +6.5%, 1M +14.0%.
- Apparel Manufacturers: 4/24 (16.7%) up >=10% in 1W. Liquid-name average 1W +8.4%, 1M +14.5%.
- Specialty Retail: 7/81 (8.6%) up >=10% in 1W. Liquid-name average 1W +3.4%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIGS | +21.2% | +46.4% | +85.5% |
| CBRL | +20.0% | +57.6% | +28.7% |
| BBWI | +16.1% | +17.2% | -3.5% |
| BLMN | +15.7% | +23.6% | +16.5% |
| SIG | +12.6% | +16.8% | +29.3% |
| VFC | +12.3% | +30.3% | -0.8% |
| ETSY | +11.0% | +17.7% | +1.2% |
| FWRG | +10.4% | +19.9% | -2.7% |
| ASO | +9.6% | +18.0% | +21.2% |
| DRI | +9.5% | +4.6% | +9.0% |
| OLLI | +9.2% | +22.3% | +40.1% |
Why:
- No single catalyst found for the group this week.
- Cracker Barrel: a sector writeup dated Oct 15 says the stock is up 36.6% since its last earnings report (Yahoo Finance). Bloomin' Brands' Outback turnaround has US comparable sales up 2.3%, and Bonefish Grill comps up 8.1% (Yahoo/Zacks).
- FIGS: the next report is due Nov 5. The stock rose about 27% after its Aug 6 report (Unusual Whales).
- (inference) This looks like money rotating out of AI hardware into domestic consumer names that had lagged. Several leaders were red or flat on 3M (VFC, ETSY, FWRG, BBWI), so it reads as a rebound, not an established trend.
2. Oil producers (energy bid)
Breadth:
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production: 6/80 (7.5%) up >=10% in 1W. Liquid-name average 1W +5.2%, 3M +14.9%.
- Oil & Gas Integrated: liquid-name average 1W +4.4%. XLE 1M +5.8%, 3M +18.3%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| GRNT | +14.3% | +10.3% | +16.7% |
| VET | +11.2% | +4.3% | +34.3% |
| BTE | +10.4% | +9.5% | +27.0% |
| NOG | +9.7% | +7.8% | +28.2% |
| EQNR | +9.2% | +6.0% | +25.7% |
| BP | +8.6% | +10.5% | +19.8% |
| OVV | +8.5% | +10.1% | +20.0% |
| SU | +8.1% | +12.3% | +25.0% |
Why:
- Brent closed near $109.69 on Oct 16, up 3.56% on the day, according to Trading Economics. Its commentary cites Iranian strikes on tankers reducing Strait of Hormuz flows (Trading Economics, Fortune). Other sources give lower closes (Investing.com: $105.75), so treat the price as approximate.
- Market wraps listed energy among the week's gainers during the tech selloff (Strategitz).
3. IT services and consulting
Breadth:
- Information Technology Services: 6/82 (7.3%) up >=10% in 1W. The liquid-name average 1W was only -0.3%, so the strength sat in the large outsourcers, not the whole group.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| INFY | +14.1% | +10.6% | +6.5% |
| KD | +12.4% | +2.0% | +8.7% |
| CTSH | +11.5% | +6.7% | +47.5% |
| ACN | +9.9% | +20.7% | +60.0% |
| DXC | +9.8% | +19.1% | +43.8% |
| G | +8.3% | +6.6% | +20.6% |
Why:
- On Oct 13, HCLTech's results led a rally in Indian IT. Infosys rose about 5% in Indian trading, with TCS and Tech Mahindra up as much as 6% (BusinessToday).
- Infosys extended its gains to five sessions. CEO Salil Parekh outlined a strong AI growth outlook, and AI services were more than 8% of revenue last quarter (Kotak Neo). The Nifty IT index gained more than 10% over five sessions (Zee Business).
- Background from earlier this month: Accenture rose 23% around Oct 1 on record bookings, which eased fears that AI would hollow out consulting demand (24/7 Wall St.).
4. Credit bureaus and scoring
Breadth:
- Consulting Services (the credit bureaus and data firms): 3/21 (14.3%) up >=10% in 1W. Liquid-name average 1W +7.9%, 1M only +0.9%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | +15.5% | -20.2% | -38.7% |
| TRU | +13.1% | +1.3% | -7.2% |
| EFX | +10.6% | +0.0% | -8.9% |
| FCN | +9.1% | +5.3% | -8.6% |
| VRSK | +7.5% | +8.2% | -4.9% |
Why:
- On Oct 15 the group moved together. TransUnion rose 10.7% to $74.12 on heavy volume, up from a 52-week low set earlier this month. Equifax rose 7.25% and Fair Isaac 6.99%. One report found no company announcement or confirmed reason for TransUnion's move (AskTraders, GuruFocus, TokenPost).
- Fair Isaac: reports cite United Wholesale Mortgage publicly backing FICO scores, and a plan to cut about 15% of staff (TipRanks).
- (inference) All five names are still red on 3M, so this is a bounce from lows, not a trend yet.
5. Insurance brokers
Breadth:
- Insurance Brokers: 3/16 (18.8%) up >=10% in 1W, the highest share of any industry this week. Only one is a liquid name, so the table shows large caps.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRO | +10.4% | +6.6% | +0.1% |
| ERIE | +9.8% | -0.3% | +7.2% |
| AJG | +9.5% | +5.6% | +0.4% |
| MRSH | +7.2% | +7.9% | +3.4% |
| AON | +7.0% | -1.2% | -20.3% |
| WTW | +6.5% | +1.4% | +7.5% |
Why:
- No single catalyst found. Oppenheimer initiated Brown & Brown at Outperform on Oct 7, in the prior week (GuruFocus). Earnings are close: BRO around Oct 26 and AJG on Oct 29 (Yahoo Finance).
- (inference) These are low-volatility, cash-generating names, which fits the defensive rotation described in market wraps.
6. Packaged foods and staples
Breadth:
- Packaged Foods: 5/62 (8.1%) up >=10% in 1W. Liquid-name average 1W +4.7%, 1M +0.3%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| HLF | +12.0% | +24.9% | +21.8% |
| LW | +11.9% | +15.3% | +14.5% |
| BRBR | +10.3% | +3.5% | -22.2% |
| SMPL | +9.9% | +11.3% | +1.0% |
| KDP | +9.0% | +10.1% | +12.0% |
Why:
- No single company catalyst found. On Oct 16, coverage described money rotating out of tech into defensive sectors (Motley Fool). An Oct 8 piece also tied renewed interest in staples to tech volatility (Kalkine).
One-off events (not themes)
- BMBL +133.9% in 1W (1M +100.7%). Shares jumped as much as 57% on Oct 12 after reports that Ithaca Holdings was in advanced talks to take Bumble private for about $1B. No final agreement was reported (Tribune).
Monthly themes
1. Refiners (most durable, still green)
Breadth:
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing: 8 of 10 liquid names (80%) up >=50% in 6M, and 2/10 up >=50% in 3M.
- Liquid-name average 3M +31.3%, 6M +84.8%, and 1W still +2.7% in a down week.
| Ticker | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | +9.5% | +34.7% | +127.4% |
| MPC | +13.3% | +52.9% | +123.7% |
| DINO | +7.4% | +41.4% | +119.2% |
| CVI | +13.4% | +74.8% | +108.6% |
| DK | -6.1% | +21.1% | +105.7% |
| VLO | +7.8% | +43.6% | +98.8% |
| PSX | +6.9% | +41.7% | +87.5% |
Why:
- Valero, Marathon and Phillips 66 have hit all-time highs, driven by crack spreads tied to the Iran war. One count put Marathon's Q3 return at 55.1% (MarketBeat, Karmactive).
- An Oct 12 analysis put the 3-2-1 crack spread near $64.83/bbl on Oct 6, close to the widest level in data back to 1986. It also noted the spread eased $2.21 in a week (Discovery Alert).
- The IEA estimated that closures and war damage cut refinery output by about 4.5M bbl/day in Q2 2026 (Investing.com).
2. Genomics, diagnostics and AI-bio (resting leaders)
Breadth:
- Medical Diagnostics & Research: 8/14 liquid names (57.1%) up >=50% in 6M. Liquid-name average 6M +66.4%, 1W -1.0%.
- Healthcare Information Services: 6/14 (42.9%) up >=50% in 6M, and 3/14 up >=50% in 3M. Liquid-name average 3M +19.7%, 1W -3.7%.
| Ticker | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDNA | +17.9% | +61.1% | +198.8% |
| TXG | -9.2% | +59.7% | +167.9% |
| TWST | -14.7% | +41.4% | +122.0% |
| ILMN | +7.1% | +40.7% | +95.2% |
| NTRA | +7.4% | +45.0% | +88.8% |
| VEEV | +17.7% | +58.8% | +84.8% |
| SDGR | -25.3% | +47.5% | +83.1% |
Why:
- No single catalyst found this week. Searches turned up no dated October news for TXG, TWST or ILMN.
- This week TXG fell -13.4%, TWST -16.9% and SDGR -17.2%, while VEEV rose +4.8%. (inference) These are strong 6M leaders pulling back in a risk-off tape, which makes them a "leaders consolidating" watch group rather than a broken theme.
3. Software and cybersecurity (durable, sharp pullback)
Breadth:
- Software Application: 20/69 liquid names (29.0%) up >=50% in 6M, and 7/69 up >=50% in 3M. Liquid-name average 1W -1.1%.
- Software Infrastructure: 16/52 (30.8%) up >=50% in 6M, but liquid-name average 1W -7.9%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | +0.5% | +7.9% | +122.8% | +210.5% |
| OKTA | -19.3% | -1.5% | +25.4% | +159.2% |
| GTLB | -4.2% | +5.0% | +61.2% | +146.3% |
| RBRK | -10.2% | +4.2% | +42.3% | +114.8% |
| CRWD | -17.3% | -7.5% | +12.0% | +114.5% |
| SNOW | -16.8% | -9.3% | +14.1% | +113.1% |
| PANW | -18.3% | -8.8% | -4.7% | +103.8% |
Why:
- On Oct 16, cybersecurity sold off: Okta fell more than 10%, and SentinelOne, Fortinet, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto each fell more than 7%. Reports cited a broad tech selloff, worries about AI financing and rates, and reports that OpenAI may buy security firm Trail of Bits (Yahoo Finance, TIKR).
- CrowdStrike and Palo Alto closed more than 13% below their Oct 6 record highs. Citi raised price targets on PANW, CRWD, ZS and OKTA anyway, citing a CIO survey showing security budgets accelerating to 7% growth (Motley Fool, BigGo Finance).
4. AI hardware: servers, storage and chips (durable, now breaking)
Breadth:
- Computer Hardware: 6/16 liquid names (37.5%) up >=50% in 6M, but liquid-name average 1W -18.5% and 1M -18.9%.
- Semiconductors: 6/47 (12.8%) up >=50% in 6M. Liquid-name average 1W -15.0%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | -23.0% | -23.3% | +13.9% | +129.7% |
| HPE | -25.0% | -9.7% | +20.3% | +108.5% |
| NTAP | -14.1% | +3.5% | +24.4% | +95.0% |
| P | -19.7% | +19.3% | +78.7% | +85.2% |
| MXL | -25.8% | -4.9% | -0.7% | +171.5% |
| MU | -14.6% | -10.1% | +3.5% | +93.1% |
| AMD | -13.0% | -3.0% | +6.7% | +89.9% |
Why:
- Barclays cut Dell, HPE and NetApp to hold "after a significant run and on enterprise AI timing." It argued that much of the recent revenue growth reflects memory price pass-through, not enterprise AI demand. Dell fell more than 11% on Oct 14 and about 7% more on Oct 15 (CNBC, 24/7 Wall St.).
- HPE closed Oct 15 down 20.2% from its Oct 9 close (Motley Fool).
- Chips: the SOX fell 11.4% for the week, with rates and AI-funding worries cited (Strategitz). One Reuters report said US chip stocks were set to lose $2 trillion in value (Investing.com/Reuters).
- (inference) The 6M gains are still large, but 1M has turned red on DELL, MU and AMD. This is no longer a quiet consolidation; it is an active breakdown driven by downgrades and macro worries.
Weekly vs monthly
| Theme | Weekly | Monthly | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurants / apparel / retail | Hot (12.5% restaurants, 16.7% apparel) | Weak (several leaders red on 3M) | New rebound, unproven |
| Oil producers | Hot (E&P liquid avg +5.2%) | Firm (XLE 3M +18.3%) | Oil above $100 keeps it bid |
| IT services | Leaders hot, group flat | ACN/CTSH/DXC 3M +44-60% | Narrow leadership in large outsourcers |
| Credit bureaus | Hot (+7.9% liquid avg) | Red on 3M | Bounce from 52-week lows |
| Insurance brokers | Top share (18.8%) | Flat | Defensive bid (inference) |
| Refiners | Green (+2.7%) | Most durable (80% up >=50% 6M) | Strong on both, still leading |
| Genomics / AI-bio | Red (TXG -13.4%, TWST -16.9%) | Strong 6M | Resting leaders |
| Software / cyber | Red (infra -7.9%) | Strong 6M (~30% up >=50%) | Durable theme pulling back; Citi still raising targets |
| AI hardware / chips | Worst (hardware -18.5%, semis -15.0%) | 6M still big, 1M now red | Breaking on downgrades, not resting |
What changed since last week
New this week:
- Restaurants, apparel and specialty retail (CBRL, BLMN, FIGS, VFC).
- Oil producers (E&P and integrated).
- IT services (INFY, CTSH, ACN).
- Credit bureaus (TRU, EFX, FICO).
- Insurance brokers, and packaged foods.
- Every new group is defensive, domestic or energy-linked. (inference) That fits a rotation away from AI growth, not a fresh growth theme.
Persistent:
- Refiners: the most durable group for a third straight issue, and still green on the week.
- Genomics / AI-bio: resting for a third straight issue, with weekly losses deepening (TWST -16.9%, SDGR -17.2%).
Dropped (cooling):
- Software and cyber: last week's #1 weekly theme (Software Infrastructure had 13.1% of names up >=10%) fell to 4.1%, with the liquid-name average at -7.9%. ZS went from +18.9% to -11.3%, and OKTA fell -19.3%.
- AI optical and networking: deeper losses. CIEN -26.0%, LITE -25.3%, COHR -25.5%, AAOI -31.1%. The Communication Equipment liquid-name average was -15.6%.
- Nuclear power producers: reversed (CEG -9.0%, TLN -6.3%, VST -5.9%, NRG -3.9%). Uranium liquid names fell -10.2%, and URA 1M is -17.0%.
- Vaccines: reversed (NVAX -11.7%, PCVX -10.9%, MRNA -3.1%). MRNA still shows 3M +252.7%.
- Internet / ads: stalled (SNAP -1.6%, SPOT +0.2%, PINS +2.4%).
- Steel: cooled (CLF -6.6%; the share of steel names up >=10% fell from 13.6% to 9.1%).
- Brazil election trade: pulled back ahead of the Oct 25 runoff (XP -9.3%, INTR -12.4%). Both are still up +45% and +24% on 1M.
Sources
- Strategitz — Global Markets Close, Oct 16, 2026
- BNN Bloomberg — US stocks weighed down by extended tech sell-off
- Motley Fool — Tech stocks slide as investors rotate into defensive sectors (Oct 16)
- Investing.com/Reuters — US chip stocks set to wipe out $2 trillion
- Herald Corp — Fed hike, Dow falls 1.21%
- Benzinga — Nasdaq 100 slides, Warsh keeps Fed hike open
- Yahoo Finance — Q2 earnings outperformers: Cracker Barrel
- Yahoo/Zacks — Industry outlook: Brinker, BJ's, Cracker Barrel, Bloomin' Brands
- Unusual Whales — FIGS earnings date
- Trading Economics — Brent crude
- Fortune — Price of oil, Oct 16, 2026
- BusinessToday — Infosys jumps amid IT rally (Oct 13)
- Kotak Neo — Infosys up 8% in five sessions
- Zee Business — IT stocks rally up to 21% in 5 days
- 24/7 Wall St. — Accenture soars 23% on record bookings
- AskTraders — TransUnion jumps over 10% from near 52-week low
- GuruFocus — Equifax shares rise 7.25%
- TokenPost — TransUnion rises as credit peers advance
- TipRanks — Fair Isaac soars as FICO scores win mortgage backing
- GuruFocus — Oppenheimer initiates Brown & Brown at Outperform
- Yahoo Finance — Arthur J. Gallagher Q3 2026 earnings preview
- Kalkine — Market rotation fuels interest in consumer staples
- Tribune — Bumble shares soar on $1B buyout talks
- MarketBeat — Refiner stocks near record highs on Iran-driven margins
- Karmactive — Marathon Petroleum rose 55.1% in Q3
- Discovery Alert — Crack spread analysis, October 2026
- Investing.com — 4 refining stocks riding a historic windfall
- Yahoo Finance — Cybersecurity stocks slide as AI financing jitters spread
- TIKR — CrowdStrike fell 7% on Friday
- Motley Fool — Cybersecurity stocks split into platforms and point solutions
- BigGo Finance — Citi lifts targets on Palo Alto, CrowdStrike
- CNBC — Dell stock plunges 11% on Barclays downgrade
- 24/7 Wall St. — Dell, HPE cut to hold by Barclays
- Motley Fool — Why HPE plunged 20% this week