Based on US stock returns through the Oct 30, 2026 close. Weekly breadth counts all US stocks; "liquid names" are stocks over $5 with market cap over $100M, average volume over 1M shares and an average daily range (ATR) over 2.4%. Inferences are labelled (inference).
Market backdrop
| ETF | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | -0.6% | -0.9% | +1.2% | +5.2% |
| QQQ | -2.0% | -6.7% | +0.4% | +3.4% |
| IWM | +1.3% | +0.5% | -4.1% | +0.5% |
| SMH | -0.9% | -14.2% | -3.3% | +3.1% |
| IGV | -5.7% | -2.1% | +10.3% | +24.3% |
| XLE | +1.0% | +13.9% | +17.6% | +17.4% |
| XBI | +4.3% | -1.1% | +6.1% | +18.8% |
A rotation week that ended in a chip rout.
- Across 5,575 US stocks, 474 rose 10% or more this week and 628 fell 10% or more. The average stock fell -0.4%. Last week the split was 420 up and 560 down.
- Chips rallied early in the week (SMH +7.7% Monday to Wednesday), then SMH fell -7.0% on Friday and finished the week at -0.9%.
- Friday, Oct 30: the S&P 500 fell 1.82%, the Nasdaq 2.86% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 7.20% (Closing Look).
- Intel fell 28.58%, its worst day since 1974. It guided Q4 revenue to $15.0-16.0B against a $17.1B consensus and adjusted EPS to $0.25 against $0.43 expected (StockTitan).
- Amazon missed on Q3 EPS ($1.89 vs $1.96). Its trailing 12-month free cash flow was an outflow of $42.4B, which it tied mainly to AI investment, and it kept its $220B 2026 capex plan (StockTitan, Closing Look).
- The Nasdaq had its worst month since March 2025 (Yahoo Finance).
- Energy was Friday's best sector (+1.91%). Brent settled at $113.43 and WTI at $104.12 after a tanker was hit by limpet mines in the Strait of Hormuz (Closing Look).
- Rates: two Fed officials (Musalem, Logan) said more tightening is needed. CME FedWatch put the odds of a December hike at about 76%, and the 10-year yield closed at 4.94% (Closing Look).
- Small caps held up better than tech: IWM finished +1.3% for the week while QQQ was -2.0%.
Weak groups (liquid-name averages, 1W):
- Grocery Stores: -8.5% (only 4 liquid names)
- Solar: -5.5% (1M -10.5%)
- Internet Content & Information: -5.3%. Reddit (RDDT) fell -36.4%; it dropped 29.2% on Friday on weak guidance and pressure from Google's AI search (Closing Look). Twilio (TWLO) fell -21.7%. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -12.6%.
- Software - Application: -5.0%. Software - Infrastructure: -3.3% (see the monthly software theme)
- Regional banks: -4.9%. Capital Markets: -4.2% (1M -17.8%)
- Refiners: -4.3%
- Gold: -3.8% (1M -13.7%). December gold fell 3.3% on Friday to $3,898.90, a one-year low, and silver closed below $50 (Closing Look).
- Computer Hardware: -3.5% (1M -22.8%). Semiconductors: -0.6% for the week (1M -19.2%)
Weekly themes
1. Restaurants: earnings relief rally
Breadth:
- 20 of 48 restaurant stocks (41.7%) rose 10% or more in 1W, up from 6.3% last week, when restaurants were on the cooling list. Among groups with 8 or more members, only the much smaller oil and gas drilling group (9 stocks) had a higher share.
- 8 of 15 liquid names rose 10% or more. Liquid-name average 1W +9.5% (last week -4.9%), 1M +15.7%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| WING | +25.3% | +42.1% | +15.6% |
| FWRG | +17.0% | +25.3% | -0.9% |
| EAT | +16.1% | +9.6% | -0.7% |
| CMG | +15.9% | -0.2% | -14.3% |
| WEN | +15.9% | +13.0% | -2.0% |
| BLMN | +14.9% | +36.4% | +22.1% |
| SG | +12.7% | +24.8% | +71.6% |
| TXRH | +10.2% | +16.7% | -11.2% |
Why:
- Wingstop (Oct 28): domestic same-store sales fell 5.4%, the sixth straight quarterly decline. It cut its full-year outlook to a 6.5-7% decline. The stock jumped anyway: reports put the move at 12-14.6% (Yahoo Finance, Nation's Restaurant News, Investing.com).
- Chipotle (Oct 28, after the close): adjusted EPS of $0.27 missed estimates and revenue of $3.29B matched them. Comparable sales rose 2.1%, and the CEO said the quarter ended running at about +3-4%. The stock rose 8.9% on Oct 29, bouncing off a three-year low of $27.32 set on Oct 23 (CNBC, Schaeffer's).
- Brinker (Oct 28): company comparable sales rose 9.1%, Chili's comparable sales rose 10.1% with positive traffic, and it repurchased $125.0M of stock (Brinker release).
- Wendy's rose 15.9% for the week. No confirmed report of its results was found.
- Before earnings, Raymond James blamed the sector's weakness on money moving into AI and tech, plus higher oil prices and interest rates (CNBC).
- (inference) Expectations were low. Wingstop's comps were negative and Chipotle missed on EPS, yet both stocks jumped, which looks like "less bad than feared" buying plus money rotating out of tech. Over 3M the group is still flat (liquid-name average +1.8%).
2. AI data-center power and grid contractors (rebound)
Breadth:
- Electrical Equipment & Parts: 11/53 (20.8%) up 10% or more in 1W, up from 5.7%. Liquid-name average 1W +9.3% (last week -7.9%), but 1M is still -13.4%.
- Engineering & Construction: 10/51 (19.6%), up from 2.0%. Liquid-name average 1W +5.2%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | +19.6% | -3.7% | -3.8% |
| PWR | +13.6% | -3.4% | -7.0% |
| APG | +12.4% | +14.9% | +11.7% |
| PRIM | +11.9% | -2.3% | -13.8% |
| MTZ | +8.8% | -12.9% | -29.3% |
Why:
- Vertiv (Oct 28): sales rose 61% to $4.31B (55% organic), against about $3.76B expected, and organic orders more than doubled. It raised full-year sales guidance by $650M to $14.65B and adjusted EPS guidance to $7.15. The stock rose about 16% that day (Seeking Alpha, TIKR).
- Quanta Services (Oct 29): Q3 revenue was $12.01B, up from $7.63B a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was $6.06 against $3.33. Quanta said it sees room for strong double-digit adjusted EPS growth in 2027 (Quanta 8-K).
- Both gave back some of the gain in Friday's tech selloff (VRT -5.5%, PWR -2.3% on the day).
- (inference) Hard order numbers showed AI construction spending still rising (Amazon also kept its $220B capex plan), so the AI power trade bounced. With 1M and 3M still negative, this is a rebound inside a pullback, not a repaired trend.
3. Oil drillers and gas (2nd week)
Breadth:
- Oil & Gas Drilling: 4/9 (44.4%) up 10% or more in 1W, the highest share of any group with 8 or more members, up from 33.3% last week. Liquid-name average 1W +8.2%, 1M +21.9%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTEN | +11.3% | +22.0% | +27.1% |
| HP | +10.4% | +15.8% | +24.4% |
| RIG | +8.3% | +32.4% | +30.5% |
| HAL | +3.6% | +13.7% | +12.2% |
| NE | +2.7% | +17.4% | +15.6% |
Why:
- Crude stayed above $100. On Oct 30 WTI settled at $104.12 and Brent at $113.43, after a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Exxon Mobil and Chevron beat estimates and touched record highs (Closing Look).
- Patterson-UTI (Oct 28): revenue of $1.34B (+9% from the prior quarter) beat forecasts. The quarter included a $22M gain from selling 10 rigs to Venezuela, and the company expects free cash flow to rise meaningfully in 2027 (Patterson-UTI 8-K, AP).
- Gas consolidation: on Oct 26 EQT agreed to buy Range Resources in an all-stock deal of about $13B (0.987 EQT shares per Range share). The combined company would produce more than 9 bcfe/d (World Oil, Enerdata).
- (inference) Energy money has moved in steps: producers in mid-October, then drillers in each of the last two weeks. Drillers are catching up to a month-long rise in producers while crude holds above $100.
4. Healthcare winners: trial data and beat-and-raise quarters
Breadth:
- Biotechnology: 91/604 (15.1%) up 10% or more in 1W, about the same as last week (15.7%). XBI rose +4.3%, but the liquid-name average 1M is still -4.6%.
- Healthcare Information Services: 8/46 (17.4%). Medical Devices: 13/124 (10.5%).
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|
| REPL | +53.7% | +33.0% | +57.2% |
| TDOC | +34.2% | +46.7% | +26.8% |
| GKOS | +32.8% | +44.7% | +42.5% |
| GMAB | +30.3% | +60.0% | +97.6% |
| CDNA | +26.3% | +34.5% | +100.0% |
| INSM | +20.5% | -1.4% | +14.2% |
| XNCR | +18.4% | +19.5% | +47.6% |
Why:
- Genmab (Oct 28): in a Phase 3 trial in first-line head and neck cancer, petosemtamab plus Keytruda met both primary endpoints at the first interim analysis and cut the risk of death by 50% versus Keytruda alone. It was the stock's best day in more than 14 years (Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha).
- Glaukos (Oct 28): record Q3 sales of $211.0M (+58%), including about $53M from Epioxa. It raised full-year guidance to $680-700M from $620-635M (Glaukos 8-K, Finviz).
- CareDx (Oct 29): revenue rose 39% to $139M, against about $122M expected. It raised 2026 revenue guidance to $520-530M from $490-500M, and the stock rose 22.2% on Oct 30 (CareDx 8-K, Investing.com).
- Regeneron (+15.3% for the week) beat Q3 estimates and raised its full-year outlook (Pluang).
- Replimune, Teladoc (+26.9% on Oct 29) and Insmed (+15.1% on Oct 29): no catalyst confirmed this week.
- (inference) These were company-specific wins, not a re-rating of the whole group. Biotech's 1M average is still negative, but this is the second straight week with about 15% of biotech names up 10% or more.
One-off events (not themes)
- Surgery Partners (SGRY) +47.4%: reports on Oct 26 of a takeover at about $20 a share (about $6B including debt). Reports differ on who the buyer is (TIKR, Finviz).
- ADT +42.9%: Thrive Holdings agreed on Oct 29 to buy it for $10 a share in cash (about $7.6B in equity, $15.3B including debt), with financing from Apollo affiliates. ADT can seek a better offer until Nov 28 (Yahoo Finance, TIKR).
- Grid Dynamics (GDYN) +54.5%: it rose 40.8% on Oct 30 (StockTitan) after its scheduled Q3 report (Unusual Whales). The results themselves were not confirmed.
- Range Resources (RRC) +20.0%: the EQT takeover above.
- Global Payments (GPN) +16.9%: it rose 12.97% on Oct 30 on reports that it is exploring a take-private deal worth about $40B (Closing Look).
- Paramount Skydance (PSKY) +34.6%: no catalyst found.
Monthly themes
1. Diagnostics, genomics and health IT (most durable)
Breadth:
- Diagnostics & Research: 11/17 liquid names (64.7%) up 50% or more over 6M. Liquid-name average 6M +84.6%, 3M +35.0%, 1W +3.8%.
- Healthcare Information Services: 6/14 (42.9%) up 50% or more over 3M and 7/14 (50.0%) over 6M. Liquid-name average 6M +73.0%.
| Ticker | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDNA | +34.5% | +100.0% | +320.0% |
| TXG | -22.4% | +48.3% | +218.0% |
| TWST | -20.9% | +66.9% | +161.4% |
| HNGE | +17.6% | +53.0% | +156.3% |
| SDGR | -12.6% | +79.3% | +126.9% |
| CRL | +21.8% | +54.6% | +115.3% |
| NTRA | +0.2% | +54.7% | +101.0% |
| VEEV | +9.6% | +53.6% | +100.7% |
| HTFL | +18.7% | +134.0% | +98.4% |
Why:
- This week's clearest group catalyst was CareDx's beat and guidance raise (see weekly theme 4).
- No single catalyst found for the group as a whole this week.
- Illumina fell 18.64% on Oct 30 (Closing Look) and -12.4% for the week. No cause was confirmed.
- Resting leaders: TXG (1M -22.4%), TWST (1M -20.9%) and SDGR (1M -12.6%) are still up 127-218% over 6M. This week TWST rose +9.2% and SDGR +14.0%, while TXG slipped -2.0%. (inference) These fit the "leaders of a growing industry while consolidating" pattern better than broken trends do.
2. Energy producers and drillers (durable and rising)
Breadth:
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production: 5/27 liquid names (18.5%) up 25% or more in 1M. Liquid-name average 1M +17.3%, 3M +14.8%.
- Oil & Gas Drilling: liquid-name average 1M +21.9%, 3M +24.4%. XLE 1M +13.9%, 3M +17.6%.
| Ticker | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|
| RRC | +47.5% | +36.1% | +25.6% |
| RIG | +32.4% | +30.5% | +1.8% |
| APA | +27.2% | +41.5% | +29.7% |
| AR | +26.0% | +16.4% | +7.2% |
| OVV | +25.6% | +16.3% | +18.0% |
| NOG | +23.9% | +34.0% | +4.4% |
| LNG | +22.8% | +25.3% | +20.1% |
| PTEN | +22.0% | +27.1% | +9.0% |
Why: crude above $100 and the EQT-Range deal (see weekly theme 3). (inference) A durable monthly trend with fresh weekly breadth is the strongest combination in this issue. The 6M numbers are modest, so the move is about two to three months old.
3. Refiners (durable, resting)
Breadth:
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing: 6/8 liquid names (75.0%) up 50% or more over 6M. Liquid-name average 6M +49.8%, 3M +14.7%, 1M +3.1%, but 1W -4.3%. Brazil's Ultrapar (UGP, -24.9%) pulled the weekly average down.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | +2.4% | +1.4% | +7.9% | +79.9% |
| MPC | -2.7% | +12.5% | +40.5% | +79.1% |
| DINO | -5.5% | +7.2% | +25.7% | +71.1% |
| VLO | -4.7% | +3.1% | +27.7% | +58.2% |
| DK | -1.1% | +3.1% | +8.4% | +57.9% |
| PSX | -0.1% | +10.8% | +33.6% | +57.9% |
Why:
- Valero (Oct 22): Q3 net income was $6.8B against $1.1B a year earlier, and its refining margin nearly tripled to $39.24 per barrel from $13.14 (Oilprice, 24/7 Wall St.).
- No new refiner catalyst was found this week.
- (inference) A second red week after record quarters, with crude (refiners' input cost) still rising, looks like a rest, not a broken trend. MPC and DINO are 3-6% off on the week and still up 70%+ over 6M.
4. Software (durable, pulling back)
Breadth:
- Software - Infrastructure: 17/48 liquid names (35.4%) up 50% or more over 6M. Software - Application: 19/66 (28.8%).
- But weekly breadth fell to 9.0% and 7.7% of names (from 21.4% and 20.6%). Liquid-name averages were 1W -3.3% and -5.0%, and IGV fell -5.7% for the week.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA | -2.3% | -0.4% | +46.7% | +182.7% |
| RPD | +11.1% | +35.5% | +71.6% | +180.7% |
| TEAM | -15.8% | +6.9% | +89.8% | +179.5% |
| GTLB | -3.9% | +14.5% | +56.7% | +144.3% |
| TENB | +13.8% | +39.5% | +55.5% | +142.9% |
| RBRK | -3.6% | +8.5% | +71.6% | +133.5% |
| CRWD | -2.8% | -5.4% | +31.2% | +124.7% |
| DDOG | -12.7% | -14.1% | -12.2% | +78.0% |
| FTNT | -24.4% | -23.9% | -16.0% | +61.4% |
Why:
- Software fell with Friday's tech selloff. Datadog dropped about 12% on Oct 30, and one report tied the move to the Amazon and Intel results (GuruFocus). Twilio fell 15.24% on slower growth guidance (Closing Look).
- Fortinet fell 5.9% on Oct 28, before its report, after a sell rating from Arete (TickerSpark). Q3 revenue of about $2.08B (+20%) came in slightly above consensus, but the stock still fell (Goldesel).
- Okta joins the S&P 500 before the open on Nov 4, replacing Kenvue (StockTitan).
- Resting leaders: OKTA, RBRK, CRWD and GTLB are 2-4% off on the week and still up 124-183% over 6M. (inference) This is a durable theme pulling back, not breaking. FTNT and DDOG, which are negative over 3M, are the weaker members.
5. AI chips and hardware (still breaking)
- Semiconductors: liquid-name average 1M -19.2%, 3M -8.6%. Computer Hardware: 1M -22.8%.
| Ticker | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | -24.4% | -45.3% | -27.1% | -30.4% |
| MRVL | -14.1% | -25.7% | +4.7% | +18.9% |
| DELL | -7.0% | -21.2% | +4.6% | +103.0% |
| NVDA | -3.0% | -10.4% | +1.9% | +2.5% |
| AMD | -2.3% | -17.5% | +6.0% | +42.4% |
| MU | +0.8% | -16.9% | +7.5% | +71.1% |
| LRCX | +3.9% | -27.2% | -18.4% | -7.3% |
- (inference) The early-week bounce (SMH +7.7% through Wednesday) did not hold once Intel and Amazon reported. Doubts about whether AI spending will pay off are still pressing on chips, while the companies building the physical AI infrastructure (Vertiv, Quanta) rallied on the same spending.
Weekly vs monthly
| Theme | Weekly | Monthly | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurants | Hot (41.7% of names up 10%+) | New 1M strength (26.7% of liquid names up 25%+), 3M flat | Earnings relief rally from multi-year lows |
| AI power / grid contractors | Hot (20.8% / 19.6%) | Weak (Electrical Equipment 1M -13.4%) | Rebound on Vertiv and Quanta results; trend not repaired |
| Oil drillers / producers / gas | Hot (drillers 44.4%) | Durable (E&P 1M +17.3%, XLE +13.9%) | Trend plus fresh breadth: strongest combination |
| Healthcare winners (biotech, medtech) | Firm (biotech 15.1%) | Biotech weak (1M -4.6%) | Stock-specific trial and earnings wins |
| Diagnostics / genomics / health IT | Firm (1W +3.8% / +5.4%) | Most durable (64.7% of liquid names up 50%+ over 6M) | Durable; TXG, TWST and SDGR resting |
| Refiners | Red (-4.3%) | Durable (75% up 50%+ over 6M) | Resting leaders |
| Software / cybersecurity | Red (-3.3% / -5.0%) | Durable (29-35% up 50%+ over 6M) | Durable theme pulling back; resting leaders |
| AI chips / hardware | Friday rout (SMH -7.0% on the day) | Broken (1M -19.2% / -22.8%) | Under repair |
| Gold / precious metals | Red (-3.8%) | Red (1M -13.7%) | Cooling further |
What changed since last week
New this week:
- Restaurants: 6.3% → 41.7% of names up 10% or more. Last week they were on the cooling list.
- AI power and grid contractors: Electrical Equipment 5.7% → 20.8%, Engineering & Construction 2.0% → 19.6%.
- Medtech and health-services earnings winners: Glaukos, Teladoc and CareDx.
Persistent:
- Oil drillers (2nd week): 33.3% → 44.4%. Energy has been on the list for three straight weeks (producers, then drillers).
- Biotech breadth (2nd week): 15.7% → 15.1%, now with Phase 3 data behind the leader (Genmab).
- Diagnostics, genomics and health IT are still the most durable monthly group. The genomics leaders are still resting.
- Refiners are still a durable monthly leader, with a second red week.
Dropped / cooling:
- Software and cybersecurity: Infrastructure breadth fell from 21.4% to 9.0% and Application from 20.6% to 7.7%. Liquid-name averages went from +6.6% / +7.0% to -3.3% / -5.0%.
- Staffing: 30.4% → 0%. The liquid-name average went from +15.8% to -3.1% (RHI -4.7%).
- IT services and consulting: IT Services 20.7% → 9.8%, Consulting 23.8% → 14.3%.
- Insurance brokers: 12.5% → 6.3%.
- Gold is still falling (1M -13.7%), with gold futures at a one-year low.
Sources
- Closing Look — Friday, October 30, 2026
- StockTitan — Stock market today, October 30, 2026
- Yahoo Finance — October closes with brutal sell-off
- Yahoo Finance — Wingstop Q3 revenue and same-store sales
- Nation's Restaurant News — Wingstop cuts outlook again
- Investing.com — Wingstop Q3 2026 call transcript
- CNBC — Chipotle shares rise after Q3
- Schaeffer's — Chipotle stock heats up
- Brinker International — Q1 fiscal 2027 results
- CNBC — Darden, Brinker rise ahead of restaurant earnings
- Seeking Alpha — Vertiv surges 16% after Q3
- TIKR — Vertiv orders double, guidance raised
- Quanta Services — Q3 2026 results (SEC 8-K)
- Patterson-UTI — Q3 2026 results (SEC 8-K)
- AP — Patterson-UTI Q3 earnings snapshot
- World Oil — EQT and Range combine
- Enerdata — EQT strikes $13B Range deal
- Bloomberg — Genmab best day in 14 years on cancer trial
- Seeking Alpha — Genmab rises on Phase 3 data
- Glaukos — Q3 2026 results (SEC 8-K)
- Finviz — Glaukos raised outlook
- CareDx — Q3 2026 results (SEC 8-K)
- Investing.com — CareDx tops Q3 forecasts
- Pluang — Regeneron jumps after earnings
- TIKR — Surgery Partners takeover report
- Finviz — Surgery Partners premarket jump on reported deal
- Yahoo Finance — ADT surges on $10 per share deal
- TIKR — ADT $15.3B Thrive buyout
- Unusual Whales — Grid Dynamics earnings date
- Oilprice — Valero Q3 earnings
- 24/7 Wall St. — Valero's refining margins nearly tripled
- GuruFocus — Datadog falls in Oct 30 tech selloff
- TickerSpark — Fortinet drops ahead of Q3
- Goldesel — Fortinet falls despite Q3 beat