Based on US stock returns through the Nov 13, 2026 close. Weekly breadth counts all US stocks; "liquid names" are stocks over $5 with market cap over $100M, average volume over 1M shares and an average daily range (ATR) over 2.4%. Inferences are labelled (inference).

Market backdrop

ETF 1W 1M 3M 6M
SPY +2.6% -2.0% -2.8% +0.8%
QQQ +3.6% -6.7% -7.0% -5.5%
IWM +1.4% +2.3% -9.0% -2.4%
SMH +4.9% -13.8% -17.2% -15.8%
IGV +2.3% -6.0% -2.8% +11.6%
XLE +5.4% -3.9% +4.9% +11.9%
XLF +2.7% +7.6% +0.9% +14.4%
XBI -1.1% +2.6% -4.4% +11.6%
GDX -6.8% -2.1% -9.3% -13.1%
TAN -8.6% -2.3% -19.9% -35.9%

A reversal week: last week's losers led and last week's winners fell. Nvidia's CEO resigned, and a hot inflation report pushed the 10-year yield above 5%.
- Across 5,595 US stocks, 486 rose 10% or more and 742 fell 10% or more (last week: 530 and 1,143). The average stock fell -0.3% even though SPY rose +2.6%. Of the 5,595, 393 have no Nov 13 price, so their weekly figures are out of date. They account for 32 of the risers and 68 of the fallers, and they are left out of the leader tables below.
- Mon, Nov 9: the S&P 500 rose 2.35% and the Dow 1,104 points, even as Nvidia fell 4.27% after its board opened an investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort (StockTitan).
- Tue, Nov 10: October consumer prices rose 0.4% against 0.3% expected, and core prices rose 0.3% against 0.2%. There is no annual figure, because October 2025 prices were not collected during the government shutdown (StockAnalysis). Fed Governor Waller had said a core reading around 0.3% or higher meant a half-point hike should be considered in December. The 10-year yield went back above 5% during the day and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% (StockTitan).
- Wed, Nov 11: CoreWeave's results lifted AI stocks. The S&P 500 rose 1.31% and the Nasdaq 1.60% (StockTitan).
- Thu, Nov 12: Nvidia said Jensen Huang had resigned as president, CEO and director, effective immediately. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO, and Harvey C. Jones becomes the company's first board chair. No reason was given (Nvidia 8-K). Small caps fell: IWM -1.64% (StockTitan).
- Fri, Nov 13: QQQ fell 1.20%. The 10-year yield was about 5.13% early in the day, and traders priced a December 8-9 rate hike as near certain, per CME FedWatch (StockTitan).
- Oil: Brent settled at $95.84 on Friday, down about 2.5% on the week. That was its second weekly fall in a row, after a drop of about 16% the week before. WTI settled at $88.56 (FinanceFeeds). Trump said a deal with Iran was not needed to end the war and the US blockade stays, and US crude and fuel inventories rose (BOE Report/Reuters).

Weak groups (liquid-name averages, 1W):
- Last week's winners: Solar -13.2% (last week +26.3%), Gold -8.3% (last week +14.0%), Other Precious Metals -7.4%, Silver -7.2%.
- Rate-sensitive: Mortgages -9.0% (only 2 liquid names), Residential Construction -6.0%, Mortgage REITs -5.1%, Credit Services -4.7%.
- Others: Staffing -7.1%, Agricultural Inputs -4.1% (Corteva -20.8%), Auto Manufacturers -3.6%, Uranium -2.9% (6M -48.4%).
- Gold: on Nov 10 it fell $107.60, or 2.6%, to $4,031.80 after the inflation report (TradingNews). Higher expected rates lift the dollar and yields, which raises the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest (InvestingLive).
- Solar: no single catalyst found. (inference) It gave back most of last week's jump. Last week's rally came on policy hopes, and TAN is still -35.9% over 6M.

Weekly themes

1. Chips bounce, but not Nvidia

Breadth:
- Semiconductors: 32 of 101 stocks (31.7%) rose 10% or more in 1W, the most of any group with 8 or more members apart from broadcasting, and up from 4.0% last week. 24 of 53 liquid names rose 10% or more. Liquid-name average 1W +8.6% (last week -12.2%), but 1M -14.1% and 3M -24.3%.

Ticker 1W 1M 3M
AMD +18.9% -6.4% +3.8%
AVGO +18.2% +0.2% -11.7%
ONTO +17.5% -15.7% -38.6%
ALAB +16.3% -26.1% -31.0%
ICHR +15.3% -25.4% -49.7%
ENTG +15.2% -3.7% -8.9%
TER +14.4% -30.6% -40.4%
MU +12.8% -14.9% -19.9%
LRCX +12.7% -21.3% -32.0%
AMAT +11.4% -17.0% -26.9%
NVDA -12.7% -26.4% -27.7%

Why:
- AMD upgrade (Nov 9): Oppenheimer upgraded AMD to Outperform with a $600 target and forecast 135% data center growth in 2027 (Crypto Briefing, FourWeekMBA). AMD closed +13.26% and Broadcom +8.78% that day (StockTitan).
- CoreWeave (Nov 10, after the close): third-quarter revenue rose 168% to $3.66B, and it raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $13.0-13.3B. It also expects about $9B of customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months (Stocktwits). By mid-morning on Nov 11, Micron was up 11.7% and Broadcom 5.3% (AP via ADN). Goldman Sachs' James Schneider called AI stocks "clearly in oversold territory," and Berenberg said investors were "buying back into positions with valuations now considerably lower" (Stocktwits).
- Applied Materials (Nov 12): record fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $10.41B, up 53% (StockTitan). That day AMD rose 5.86% and Broadcom 5.54%.
- Friday reversal: AMD fell 8.75% and Broadcom 4.76%, with no company news. Through Thursday AMD had been up about 30% on the week and Broadcom about 24%, as some investors moved money out of Nvidia (StockTitan).
- Nvidia:
- Nov 9: -4.27% when the board opened its investigation (StockTitan).
- Nov 10: -5.47%. The Information reported that Huang's relationship with an alleged intelligence asset may have helped move at least $7.5B of chips to Chinese firms. Reuters said it could not verify the report, and the claims are unproven (Motley Fool).
- Nov 11: closed +2.87%, then fell 8.61% after hours on a Wall Street Journal report that the board was preparing to remove Huang (StockTitan).
- Nov 12: Huang resigned, and the stock fell 4.34% to $166.19.
- Nov 13: it fell another 2.01% to $162.85. Nvidia still plans to report results on Nov 17 (Nvidia 8-K).
- (inference) This is a bounce from deeply oversold levels, helped by money moving out of Nvidia and into other chip names. The group is still -14.1% over 1M and -24.3% over 3M, and Friday's AMD drop shows how fragile it is. Nvidia's Nov 17 report is the next test.

2. AI data center builders: power, cooling, networking and storage

Breadth:
- Engineering & Construction: 12/51 (23.5%) up 10% or more in 1W, up from 7.8%. Liquid-name average 1W +5.1%, 3M -16.4%.
- Computer Hardware: 7/36 (19.4%), up from 5.6%. Hardware & Parts: 12/79 (15.2%), up from 6.3%, with 6 of 23 liquid names up 10% or more (average +6.1%). Communication Equipment: 8/54 (14.8%), up from 5.6%. Electrical Equipment: 6/53 (11.3%), up from 5.7%.
- Independent Power Producers (only 7 members): 2 up 10% or more, from 0 last week. Liquid-name average +6.6%.

Ticker 1W 1M 3M
MOD +40.4% -14.0% -35.2%
AAON +40.3% -0.3% -8.6%
LGN +25.4% -22.1% -47.3%
CLS +16.3% -25.7% -28.3%
STRL +15.7% -35.5% -49.3%
ANET +15.5% +1.0% -0.8%
CIEN +15.3% -22.0% -34.6%
STX +14.6% -26.0% -45.7%
CRWV +14.5% -19.2% -49.5%
COHR +13.1% -17.2% -33.0%
CEG +12.1% +0.2% -0.8%
PWR +11.3% -8.9% -12.2%
TLN +11.0% +4.9% +3.7%
VRT +10.5% -9.3% -31.2%
NRG +10.0% -3.7% -23.1%

Why:
- CoreWeave: about $9B of expected customer prepayments is direct evidence that AI computing demand is still being paid for (see theme 1). CoreWeave rose 24.71% on Nov 11 (StockTitan).
- AAON (Nov 10): record third-quarter sales rose 84.1% to $707.4M and it raised its 2026 growth forecast. It also restated its first-half results. The stock rose 19.31% that day (StockTitan).
- Modine (Nov 13): Bloomberg reported takeover talks with Samsung, which Samsung could not confirm. The stock rose 27.86% (StockTitan). This is a deal report, not a group catalyst.
- NRG (Nov 9): it agreed to sell six gas power plants to LS Power for $4B cash, to fund buybacks and debt paydown. The stock rose 10.45% (StockTitan).
- Smaller names, below our liquidity bar:
- Babcock & Wilcox rose 18.21% on Nov 10 after third-quarter revenue more than doubled to $290.8M, with a $2.5B backlog.
- Ameresco rose 23.03% that day on a record $7.2B backlog (StockTitan).
- Fermi rose 13.81% on Nov 12 after a cloud company signed agreements for an initial 600 MW, including a $200M prepayment (StockTitan).
- Legence: it rose 12.4% on Nov 9 ahead of its third-quarter report (MarketBeat). We found no coverage of the results themselves.
- Not everyone joined:
- Nebius fell 16.84% on Nov 12. Revenue rose 571% to $980.8M, but it pushed its $7B annual sales-pace goal back to February.
- Super Micro fell 11.30% that day, with no reason given (StockTitan).
- Cisco fell 6.24% on Nov 13. Revenue was a record $18.5B, up 24%, but gross margin slipped to 63.7% from 65.5% (StockTitan).
- IREN fell -16.0% on the week.
- (inference) The Nov 5 fear that a Democratic Congress slows data center building has not been resolved. This week's bounce came from customer evidence: CoreWeave's prepayments, AAON's orders and the Fermi power deal. With 3M returns still -16% to -30% across these groups, it is a rebound, not yet a repaired trend.

3. Energy rebounds, even though oil fell

Breadth:
- Oil & Gas Drilling: 2/9 (22.2%) up 10% or more in 1W, up from 0.0%. Equipment & Services: 9/50 (18.0%), up from 2.0%. Exploration & Production: 12/80 (15.0%), up from 1.3%. Midstream: 5/47 (10.6%), up from 0.0%.
- Liquid-name averages 1W: Drilling +7.8%, Midstream +6.9%, Refining +6.8%, E&P +6.7%, Equipment +5.0%, Coal +8.0%. XLE rose +5.4%.

Ticker 1W 1M 3M
GFR +38.2% +18.9% +11.5%
GRNT +19.1% +27.5% +23.3%
PUMP +17.5% -8.6% -37.9%
VG +14.0% -1.0% -6.1%
CRK +13.2% +10.8% +8.0%
TRGP +12.4% +2.2% +7.8%
MPC +11.2% -14.5% +16.7%
LNG +11.1% +10.4% +13.7%
PTEN +10.6% -4.9% -3.5%
DVN +10.4% -6.7% +1.6%

Why:
- Oil did not lead. Brent fell 3.6% to $94 on Nov 9, when an Iranian proposal to reopen Hormuz, brokered by Qatar, went to the White House. It jumped 3.3% on Thursday after Yemen's Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil sites, which were not independently confirmed. It still ended the week -2.5% at $95.84 (FinanceFeeds).
- Greenfire (Nov 9): Strathcona Resources agreed to buy it for C$11.00 cash or 0.25 Strathcona shares. The cash offer is 39% above its Nov 6 close, and the stock rose 38.21% (StockTitan). This is a takeover.
- Venture Global (Nov 10): it raised its full-year 2026 earnings forecast after third-quarter results and now expects to export 509-518 cargoes in 2026 (Oil & Gas 360).
- Granite Ridge, ProPetro, Comstock, Targa and Devon: no stock-specific catalyst found this week. Large integrated oil companies lagged: XOM +2.8% and CVX +3.4%.
- (inference) After last week's -12% to -21% drops across energy groups, this is a rebound in the stocks while oil itself kept falling. Most groups are still negative over 1M, so it needs crude to stabilize to last.

4. Space and defense tech: record backlogs

Breadth:
- Aerospace & Defense: 11/79 (13.9%) up 10% or more in 1W, up from 12.7% and 6.3% two weeks ago. 6 of 27 liquid names rose 10% or more. Liquid-name average 1W +4.7%, 1M +7.8%, but 3M -20.4%.

Ticker 1W 1M 3M
LUNR +24.2% +18.0% -31.6%
AVEX +22.6% -11.8% -41.9%
FLY +21.4% +48.1% -5.5%
RKLB +15.9% +4.0% -23.3%
VOYG +12.8% +4.7% -37.1%
PL +10.0% -2.3% -44.1%

Why:
- Rocket Lab (Nov 9, after the close):
- Record revenue of $268M. Backlog grew by about $1.2B in the quarter to $3.57B.
- Customers signed eight Neutron launches for about $515M, and its first 16 Neutron launches are now booked.
- Negatives: Neutron's first launch moved to 2027 after voids were found in a propellant tank, and the operating loss widened to $79.2M.
- It guided Q4 revenue to $270-290M. The stock rose 6.5% on Nov 10 (Trefis, Advanced Television).
- Intuitive Machines (Nov 12):
- Revenue of $269.35M against about $243.30M expected, and a record backlog of $1.9B.
- It narrowed its 2026 revenue forecast to $920-950M from $900M-$1B (Panabee).
- The stock rose 6.98% that day (StockTitan).
- AEVEX (Nov 12): it raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $820-840M and rose 13.44% (StockTitan).
- Firefly: no single catalyst found this week. Its big move came the week before, on the AST SpaceMobile engine deal.
- Not everyone joined: on Nov 13, Virgin Galactic fell 31.09% (net loss of $59M and a note-for-share swap), and York Space fell 12.42% (revenue -7% and a net loss of $807.4M) (StockTitan). Kratos fell -3.4% on the week.
- (inference) Earnings-driven: companies with record backlogs were rewarded and companies with heavy losses were punished. With 3M returns still -23% to -44% for most leaders, this is a rebound inside a deep pullback.

5. Local TV broadcasters: the political ad windfall

Breadth:
- Broadcasting: 6 of 13 stocks (46.2%) rose 10% or more in 1W, the highest share of any group with 8 or more members. That is up from 23.1% last week and 7.7% two weeks ago. Only 3 are liquid names. Their average was 1W +8.9%, 1M +26.3%, 3M -1.9%.

Ticker 1W 1M 3M
NMAX* +30.5% +3.3% -11.9%
GTN +21.7% +38.3% +14.8%
SBGI* +10.7% +22.3% +2.0%
NXST* +9.4% +29.7% +9.7%

*Trades under 1M shares a day. Scripps (SSP) also rose +18.4% but trades under $5.

Why:
- Newsmax (Nov 13): revenue rose 52.5% to $69.0M, including a one-time $14.0M payment, and net income was $15.2M. The stock rose 31.41% that day (StockTitan).
- Gray (Nov 6): third-quarter political revenue was $198M. It expects $630-640M of political ads for full-year 2026 and kept its $0.08 quarterly dividend (Finviz, TheDesk).
- Scripps (Nov 5): third-quarter political revenue was $82.6M against $5.5M a year earlier, and Local Media revenue rose 15%. It plans to pay down at least $150M of debt in Q4 (Capital.com).
- This week: no single catalyst found for Gray, Sinclair or Nexstar. Earnings Whispers flagged the post-election fall-off in political ads as Gray's key test while its debt stays high (Earnings Whispers).
- (inference) A small, thinly traded group re-rating on record midterm ad money and debt paydown. Political ads stop after the election, so the next quarters will show whether it lasts.

One-off events (not themes)

Monthly themes

A note on the 6M figures: this week the six-month window moved past a mid-May drop in IT services and some software names. For example, Accenture closed at $174.57 on May 6 and $159.64 on May 13, and EPAM went from $106.97 to $90.39. So part of this week's jump in "up 50% or more over 6M" counts for those groups is a starting-point effect, not new buying.

1. Health IT and diagnostics (most durable, still resting)

Breadth:
- Diagnostics & Research: 12/16 liquid names (75.0%) up 50% or more over 6M, the highest share of any group with 4 or more liquid names, up from 52.9%. Liquid-name average 3M +17.6%, 6M +74.1%, but 1M +0.1% and 1W -1.5%.
- Healthcare Information Services: 9/14 (64.3%), up from 57.1%. Liquid-name average 1M +11.0%, 3M +23.1%, 6M +70.9%, 1W -0.9%.

Ticker 1M 3M 6M
CDNA +20.4% +71.8% +280.1%
TXG -20.4% +3.7% +170.4%
CERT +23.6% +44.6% +151.0%
SDGR +17.9% +67.9% +134.0%
HNGE +9.9% +30.4% +114.2%
CRL +11.9% +20.7% +112.4%
TWST -24.7% -5.9% +110.8%
VEEV +1.4% +23.7% +93.0%
DOCS +11.4% +34.4% +85.1%
MYGN +36.4% +86.8% +56.4%

Why:
- No single catalyst found for the group this week.
- Twist Bioscience (Nov 12): record fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $126.6M and full-year revenue of $459.4M. It guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $550-560M and reported positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 (Twist 8-K). The stock still fell -7.6% on the week.
- GeneDx fell 16.57% on Nov 10 after lowering its test-growth outlook to at least 28% (StockTitan).
- Resting leaders: TXG (1M -20.4%) and TWST (1M -24.7%) are still up 110-170% over 6M. (inference) A durable group consolidating, with no sign yet of broad selling. CDNA, CERT and SDGR keep 1M gains.

2. IT services, consulting and credit bureaus (the "AI losers" rebound)

Breadth:
- IT Services: 6/28 liquid names (21.4%) up 25% or more in 1M (last week 27.6%), and 11/28 (39.3%) up 50% or more over 6M (last week 10.3%; see the note above). Liquid-name average 1W +3.2%, 1M +12.1%.
- Consulting Services: 1/4 up 25% or more in 1M (last week 2/4). Liquid-name average 1M +20.3%.

Ticker 1M 3M 6M
TLS +75.8% +61.9% +73.8%
GDYN +72.2% +70.5% +104.2%
VYX +52.3% +28.4% +51.2%
KD +42.6% +27.6% +51.0%
EPAM +42.3% +62.3% +81.9%
FISV +38.4% +17.3% +19.3%
EFX +25.1% +4.0% +19.3%
G +23.4% +28.8% +50.7%
CNXC +22.7% +33.6% +39.7%
ACN +16.5% +41.6% +52.7%

Why:
- Telos (Nov 9): it raised its 2026 revenue forecast and the stock rose 48.76% (StockTitan).
- The AI-disruption question is still live: Microsoft fell about 3% intraday on Nov 10 when Anthropic announced Claude workplace tools (StockTitan). Accenture fell -3.8% on the week.
- (inference) Most leaders had flat weeks (GDYN +0.8%, EPAM +2.4%, EFX -0.8%), which is what a strong one-month trend pausing looks like.

3. Consumer rebound: luxury, footwear, leisure and restaurants

Breadth:
- Luxury Goods: 2/4 liquid names (50.0%) up 25% or more in 1M. Liquid-name average 1M +35.0%, 3M +30.3%.
- Footwear & Accessories: 2/6 (33.3%). Leisure: 4/12 (33.3%), up from 16.7%. Restaurants: 3/18 (16.7%), down from 21.1%.
- Weekly breadth cooled: Luxury 25.0% to 8.3% of names up 10% or more, Leisure 20.6% to 8.8%, Specialty Retail 19.8% to 6.2%.

Ticker 1M 3M 6M
REAL +59.7% +27.5% +55.4%
PTLO +45.7% +31.6% +70.2%
CPRI +42.9% +39.9% +22.6%
CROX +39.3% +24.3% +68.5%
WWW +32.2% +18.4% +63.5%
PLNT +30.3% +21.5% +18.8%
WING +29.3% +26.0% +33.5%
CLX +28.8% +3.6% +20.1%
HAS +26.3% +24.7% +26.0%
LEVI +24.1% +7.7% +13.5%

Why:
- The RealReal (Oct 29): third-quarter merchandise volume rose 23% and revenue 19%, and it raised its full-year guidance (FashionUnited). The stock rose +12.9% this week.
- Fossil (Nov 11): it raised its 2026 outlook and extended its Diesel watch license by five years. The stock rose 26.68% that day (StockTitan).
- Warning signs: YETI fell 10.49% on Nov 12 after cutting its 2026 outlook on a more cautious consumer (StockTitan). Grocery Outlet lowered the top of its profit forecast, and Suja cut its outlook, citing grocery softness (StockTitan).
- (inference) A durable one-month trend whose weekly breadth faded as money rotated back into tech. The leaders mostly held (CROX +7.8%, REAL +12.9%, WWW +16.7% in 1W), but the YETI cut is the first company-level warning on the consumer.

4. Software (durable, a firmer week)

Breadth:
- Software - Application: 23/68 liquid names (33.8%) up 50% or more over 6M, up from 22.4%. Software - Infrastructure: 13/53 (24.5%), up from 19.2%. Part of this is the starting-point effect noted above: Amplitude closed at $7.52 on May 6 and $5.98 on May 13.
- Liquid-name averages 1W +1.9% and +2.8% (last week -0.6% and -6.3%). IGV rose +2.3%.

Ticker 1W 1M 3M 6M
APPN +5.6% +41.8% +53.9% +183.6%
AMPL +3.8% +13.4% +33.1% +182.9%
PD +1.7% -4.1% +34.0% +137.0%
RPD -1.8% +16.4% +10.8% +131.3%
OKTA +8.4% -13.7% +24.0% +125.6%
ZETA +18.1% +13.6% +26.2% +121.0%
GTLB -0.7% -10.2% +12.0% +111.2%
RSKD +8.5% +14.6% +41.7% +99.8%
SNOW +5.5% -13.2% -11.5% +93.0%
TEAM -2.4% -26.7% -7.5% +85.5%

Why:
- Riskified (Nov 11): revenue rose 41% to $115.2M and it raised its 2026 forecast. The stock rose 22.29% (StockTitan).
- Losers: monday.com fell 9.10% on Nov 9 on a Q4 growth forecast of about 14% (StockTitan). Digital Turbine fell 35.84% on Nov 10.
- Resting leaders: OKTA, GTLB, SNOW and TEAM are still -10% to -27% over 1M but up 85-126% over 6M. (inference) A durable theme that steadied this week. The test is whether the 1M pullbacks hold above their 3M starting points.

5. Refiners (durable, bounced back)

Breadth:
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing: 5/9 liquid names (55.6%) up 50% or more over 6M, back up from 22.2% last week (75.0% two weeks ago). Liquid-name average 1W +6.8%, but 1M -15.8%. 3M +7.3%, 6M +42.9%.

Ticker 1W 1M 3M 6M
PBF +6.0% -20.4% -0.8% +75.4%
MPC +11.2% -14.5% +16.7% +66.6%
VLO +9.6% -17.4% +11.2% +55.2%
PSX +7.8% -10.9% +13.4% +54.5%
DINO +5.1% -20.0% +9.1% +48.7%

Why: no single catalyst found. They bounced with the rest of energy while Brent fell 2.5% (FinanceFeeds). (inference) Last week's -13.2% drop took several leaders just under +50% over 6M, and this week's bounce lifted them back over. The 1M damage (-15.8%) is still there.

6. Housing, mortgages and airlines (strong month, hit by rates this week)

Breadth:
- Residential Construction: liquid-name average 1M +17.3%, but 1W -6.0%. Home Improvement: 1M +25.6%, 1W -2.8%. Mortgages: 1M +30.2%, 1W -9.0%.
- Airlines: 2/8 liquid names (25.0%) up 25% or more in 1M, up from 0. Liquid-name average 1M +18.9%, 1W -2.2%.

Ticker 1W 1M 3M 6M
ULCC +2.2% +55.5% +13.5% +56.5%
DFH -14.0% +43.7% -31.7% -21.6%
RKT -9.0% +30.2% -7.1% -4.0%
LOW +1.4% +20.9% +4.2% +1.8%
HD +1.5% +18.0% +2.9% +14.6%
PHM -4.1% +16.2% -2.4% +11.5%
LEN -5.8% +13.7% -3.7% -1.9%
DAL -1.1% +12.5% -3.5% +20.5%

Why:
- Rates: the hot inflation report pushed the 10-year above 5%, and a December hike is now priced as near certain (StockTitan).
- Oil: on Nov 11, PulteGroup fell 2% and United fell 1.7% "amid rising oil prices" (AP via ADN). After Friday's close the FAA halted departures nationwide during a communications outage. United fell 1.93% and Delta 2.41% after hours (StockTitan).
- (inference) These one-month trends ran on falling yields and falling oil. Both reversed this week, and 3M returns are near flat or negative. A young trend facing its first real test.

Weekly vs monthly

Theme Weekly Monthly Read
Chips Hot (31.7% of names up 10%+, average +8.6%) Broken (1M -14.1%, 3M -24.3%) Oversold bounce, Nvidia excluded; Nov 17 is the test
AI data center builders Hot (construction 23.5%, hardware 19.4%) Broken (3M -16% to -30%) Rebound on customer evidence; trend not repaired
Energy Hot (drillers 22.2%, equipment 18.0%, E&P 15.0%) Mixed (E&P 1M -2.1%, 3M +1.1%) Stocks up while oil fell; fragile
Space / defense tech Firm (13.9%, 6 of 27 liquid names) Weak (3M -20.4%) Earnings-driven bounce
Local TV broadcasters Hottest share (46.2%) Strong 1M (+26.3%) Political ad windfall; thin trading
Health IT / diagnostics Red (-0.9% / -1.5%) Most durable (64.3% / 75.0% up 50%+ over 6M) Resting leaders TXG, TWST
IT services / consulting Flat (+3.2% / +0.4%) Strong (21.4% up 25%+ in 1M) Durable; leaders pausing
Consumer (luxury, leisure, restaurants) Cooled (25.0% to 8.3%, 20.6% to 8.8%) Strong (luxury 1M +35.0%) Durable; first outlook warnings (YETI)
Software Firmer (+1.9% / +2.8%) Durable (33.8% / 24.5% up 50%+ over 6M) Resting leaders OKTA, GTLB, SNOW
Refiners Bounce (+6.8%) Durable (55.6% up 50%+ over 6M) but 1M -15.8% Trend bent, not broken
Housing / mortgages / airlines Red (-6.0% / -9.0% / -2.2%) Strong 1M (+17.3% / +30.2% / +18.9%) Young trend hit by yields above 5%
Gold / solar Broken (-8.3% / -13.2%) Weak (3M -16.6% / -23.0%) Last week's rally reversed

What changed since last week

New this week:
- Semiconductors: 4.0% to 31.7% of names up 10% or more. Liquid-name average -12.2% to +8.6%.
- AI data center builders: Engineering & Construction 7.8% to 23.5%, Computer Hardware 5.6% to 19.4%, Hardware & Parts 6.3% to 15.2%, Communication Equipment 5.6% to 14.8%. Independent Power Producers went from 0 to 2 of 7 names.
- Energy: Drilling 0.0% to 22.2%, Equipment & Services 2.0% to 18.0%, E&P 1.3% to 15.0%, Midstream 0.0% to 10.6%.
- Smaller groups: Marine Shipping 4.3% to 15.2% and Integrated Freight 6.9% to 20.7%. Neither had a liquid name up 10% or more.

Persistent:
- Broadcasting (2nd week): 23.1% to 46.2%.
- Aerospace & Defense (3rd week rising): 6.3% to 12.7% to 13.9%. Medical Devices (3rd week): 10.5% to 14.5% to 13.7%.
- Health IT and diagnostics stay the most durable monthly group. IT services and consumer stay strong on 1M, with flat or cooling weeks.

Dropped / cooling:
- Gold: 53.2% to 0.0%. Liquid-name average +14.0% to -8.3%. Other Precious Metals: 42.9% to 0.0%.
- Solar: 52.4% to 14.3%. Liquid-name average +26.3% to -13.2%.
- Mortgages: 42.9% to 0.0%. Airlines: 29.6% to 3.7%. Casinos: 23.3% to 3.3%.
- Specialty Retail: 19.8% to 6.2%. Luxury Goods: 25.0% to 8.3%. Leisure: 20.6% to 8.8%. Non-Alcoholic Beverages: 22.2% to 11.1%. Electronic Gaming: 25.0% to 14.3%.
- (inference) A near-complete reversal of last week. The trades that worked on falling oil, falling yields and the election result gave way to a bounce in the groups that were sold hardest.

Sources