RKLB Deep Dive — October 7, 2026

Verdict: Mixed

Key finding: No company news behind today's -5.2%. The whole space group is down 5-7% in a high-beta selloff (ASTS -5.8%, LUNR -6.6%, PL -5.4%, FLY -6.0%, KRMN -6.2%; SpaceX/SPCX only -1.2%). Underneath, RKLB has the strongest fundamentals in a broken group: Q2 revenue +62%, backlog $2.36B (+137%), and the Iridium deal is now fully financed and approved. The price has been building a 2-month base ($60.51-$86.83) after a -52.9% crash from the $151 high.

Scorecard

Ticker	Rev last Q ($M)	Rev YoY last Q	Rev YoY prior Q	Gross margin (last Q, trend)	Op margin	EPS last Q vs yr ago	P/S	Mkt cap	1-mo price %
RKLB	234.1	+62.0%	+63.5%	36.1% (up from 32.1% a year ago)	-24.6% (from -41.3%)	-0.08 vs -0.13	53.5	$41.2B	+14.0%
KRMN	182.1	+58.2%	+51.0%	43.0% (up from 40.9%)	+19.1%	0.11 vs 0.05	7.0	$4.1B	-16.1%
PL (Jul Q)	116.1	+58.1%	+42.1%	56.6% (flat, 57.6%)	-11.6%	-0.03 vs -0.07	15.4	$5.8B	+4.3%
LUNR	206.2	+309.8%	+198.7%	17.4% (down from 39.0% prior Q)	-22.9%	-0.29 vs -0.24	4.6	$2.2B	-4.0%
ASTS	31.5	—	+1952%	25.2%	—	-0.77 vs -0.41	209	$24.1B	-4.5%

RKLB is the momentum and scale leader of the space group, not the quality or valuation leader.
- It's the only one up strongly over the month (+14.0%; peers range -16.1% to +4.3%) and has the largest steady revenue base growing 60%+.
- KRMN is the quality leader (only profitable name, op margin +19.1%).
- RKLB is the second most expensive on revenue (P/S 53.5 vs 4.6-15.4 for the others; only ASTS is higher).
- Margins are improving steadily: gross margin went 28.8% → 36.1% and op margin -48.3% → -24.6% over 5 quarters.

Move

Run-up: $82.51 at the end of April → $151.00 all-time high on 5/27/26, after the Q1 beat and record launch deal (+34% in a day on 5/8).
Crash: down to $58.20 on 7/29. Market cap fell from about $83B to $38B.
Base since August: $60.51 (9/14 low) to $86.83 (8/10 high, pre-Q2 earnings). October range $69.42-$78.28.
Recent: +7.7% 1W and +14.0% 1M into 10/6, then today opened -2.9% at $72.91 and trades $71.19 (-5.2%), sitting on the 50-day MA ($70.11). The 200-day MA ($81.61) is overhead.
Still -52.9% from the high and +22.3% from the July low.

Catalyst

Today: no company-specific news found. It's a space and high-beta selloff (inference: the same risk-off flow hitting SPHB -1.8% vs SPLV -0.4%). Yesterday's +2.8% was tied to NASA moving toward a bulk purchase of launches for its planned moon base (Benzinga).
May rally: Q1 revenue $200.3M (+63.5%), backlog about $2.2B (+108%), largest launch deal on record. Deutsche Bank target $73 → $120; Clear Street initiated with a $150 target.
July crash:
the pending $8B Iridium acquisition (dilution and a $3.6B bridge loan)
Piper Sandler started coverage at Neutral
insider selling including CEO Peter Beck
Neutron's first flight at risk of slipping into 2027
a sector-wide space risk-off
Q2 (8/10): record revenue $234M (+62%), backlog $2.36B (+137%), 90+ launches booked. Q3 guidance $250-265M. The stock still fell because the Neutron Q4-2026 window was described as tight.
Since then:
9/15: Iridium financing completed. The $3.6B bridge was cancelled, with a $1.94B at-the-market stock sale (29.3M shares) used for the cash part instead.
9/24: Iridium shareholders approved the deal (99.6% of votes cast). Close is targeted for mid-2027, pending regulators/FCC.
Neutron: the first vehicle is expected on the pad in Q4 2026, with no launch date set.
SpaceX stopping new Falcon 9 rideshare sales after 2028 opens the medium-lift market Neutron is built for.

Sector

Space: the whole group is 55-74% off its highs (ASTS -55.7%, PL -66.1%, FLY -65.5%, LUNR -70.0%, KRMN -73.7%). RKLB is the least damaged at -52.9%.
Defense/hypersonics side (HASTE): inside a broken group. ITA is -15% over 3 months, and drone/defense names lose more on down days than they gain on up days.
Broader market: /ES is at the top of its multi-year channel (~7900), and high-beta is being sold.

Risks

Dilution (hard flag):
diluted shares went 506M → 630M in five quarters (+24.5%)
another 29.3M shares were sold through the ATM in September
the Iridium stock portion adds more at the mid-2027 close
Insider selling: the CEO sold in July.
Neutron execution: there was already a tank qualification failure in January 2026. A slip into 2027 is the market's base case risk, and the first flight is a binary event.
Integration and leverage: Iridium's term loan is $1.775B (amended for change of control). Regulatory/FCC approval is pending.
Valuation: P/S 53.5. It means the stock drops hard on any miss.
Binary dates: Q3 earnings (expected early-to-mid November; inference from the 5/7 and 8/10 report dates), and the Neutron pad / first flight.

Judgement

The -52.9% drawdown was justified: dilution, CEO selling, the Neutron slip, and a P/S that had stretched past 100 at the peak (inference from about $83B market cap on roughly $680M TTM revenue then).

Today's -5.2% is not about RKLB. It's group and high-beta selling on no news, and RKLB is falling about the same as or less than its peers.

What has changed since the crash is real:
- the financing overhang is gone (bridge cancelled, ATM done)
- the deal is approved
- revenue and backlog keep setting records
- the stock has built a two-month base while the rest of space kept bleeding

That's the "leader of the group, consolidating" pattern, but it is not a breakout yet:
- the base isn't broken out yet (the 200-day at $81.61 and the $86.83 base high sit overhead)
- today is a risk-off tape
- earnings is a binary event about a month out