Verdict: Mixed
Key finding: There is no fresh catalyst - no 10%+ move since the Aug 19 convertible gap-down (-12.1%). BLZE has bled -30.6% from the Aug 4 Q2-beat close (19.79) while fundamentals improved (revenue growth accelerating +11.7% to +17.7% YoY, FY26 guide raised to $172-174M, B2 2027 growth guided >40%). For the last 4 weeks it has been building a base at 12.15-14.64. It is the cheapest AI-storage name in the group (P/S 5.3x).
No prior BLZE dives in the table, so this is the first dive.
Scorecard
| Ticker | Rev last Q ($M) | Rev YoY last Q | Rev YoY prior Q | Gross margin (last Q, trend) | Op margin | EPS last Q vs yr ago | P/S | Mkt cap | 1-mo price % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLZE | 42.7 | +17.7% | +11.7% | 62.8% (up from 60.9%) | -9.8% | -0.08 vs -0.13 | 5.3x | $0.82B | -1.2% |
| CRWV | 2,575 | +112.3% | +116.9% | 65.9% (down from 74.2% yr ago) | -1.9% | -1.14 vs -0.60 | 6.4x | $48.3B | -11.4% |
| DOCN | 281.2 | +28.6% | +22.4% | 55.0% (down from 59.9%) | +10.5% | 0.29 vs 0.39 | 14.7x | $14.9B | +0.5% |
| NBIS | 582.3 | +454.0% | +621.5% | 77.1% (volatile) | -30.2% | -0.68 vs 2.45 | 42.0x | $56.9B | -2.8% |
| STX | 3,629 | +48.5% | +44.1% | 52.3% (up from 37.4%) | +42.5% | 5.60 vs 2.24 | 14.8x | $181.1B | -10.7% |
BLZE is the laggard on growth and profitability (+17.7% rev growth vs +28.6% to +454% for peers; still GAAP op-loss -9.8%), but the cheapest by far (P/S 5.3x vs 6.4x-42x).
Growth is accelerating at BLZE (+11.7% to +17.7%), just as it is at DOCN and STX. Its 1-month tape (-1.2%) held up better than CRWV/STX (about -11%) during the past month's AI-infra pullback.
Move
- No fresh move. Last close 10/7: 13.73. The past month is flat (-1.2%, 9/8 to 10/7). Since 9/10, every daily close has been between 12.31 and 14.36 (Sep 11 to Oct 7 range: low 12.15, high 14.64).
- 2026 sequence (all from prices_daily):
- May 5: +63.6% (gap +60.1%) on the Q1 beat and AI demand.
- Jun 23: +43.6% (gap +27.0%) on the $335M CoreWeave deal.
- Aug 4: +26.9% (gap +29.3%, high 23.99) on the Q2 beat and raise.
- Aug 19: -12.1% (gap -12.8%, open 16.75) on the convertible.
- From the 23.99 high: -42.8%. From the Aug 4 close: -30.6%. From the Aug 19 close: -18.7%. Still +80.9% above the May 5 close (7.59).
- Market is premarket now (07:58 ET), so price_at_dive is left NULL. The nightly job fills it with the next open.
Catalyst
- Aug 18-19: the latest 10%+ move. Backblaze proposed $150M of convertible notes due 2031 and upsized to $175M at a 0.00% coupon.
- Initial conversion price is about $21.94 (30% premium to the $16.88 close on Aug 19).
- A capped call caps dilution protection at $33.76 and cost about $15.2M.
- Proceeds go to the capped call, general corporate purposes and capex.
- The stock fell about 13% on Aug 19.
- Aug 3 (Q2 results):
- Revenue was $42.7M (+18%) and B2 Cloud grew +34%, its best in 7 quarters.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin was 30% (vs 18%).
- Q3 is guided to $44.4-44.8M. FY26 guidance was raised to $172-174M (from $161.5-163.5M).
- Management expects B2 growth above 40% in 2027 (directional, not formal guidance), based on CoreWeave's minimum commitment.
- Capex is planned at 55-65% of revenue in 2026.
- Jun 23 CoreWeave deal: about $335M over 5-7 years, multi-exabyte, the largest contract in Backblaze's history. CoreWeave received warrants for up to 4.19M shares at $7.60.
- After the convertible, the news has been product and PR items only:
- WEKA partnership (9/9)
- Investor Day (9/9)
- AI Infra Summit talk (9/14)
- Q2 Drive Stats (9/29)
- Jamf Mac backup (10/1)
- Reported PT raises: Citizens to $21 (from $16, Outperform) and B. Riley to $24 (from $16, Buy). The exact dates were not verified.
- The search found no news on 10/7 or 10/8.
- Investor Day was 9/9. Price fell -4.8% that day and -6.9% on 9/10. The search did not surface its specific long-term targets, so the reason for the drop is unknown.
Sector
- The AI-storage and neocloud theme was hit hard last month:
- CRWV -11.4% (its customer)
- STX -10.7%
- NBIS -2.8%
- DOCN +0.5%
- BLZE held flat through that pullback (-1.2%). Inference: selling may be exhausted inside the base. AI storage has been very strong: STX at +48.5% revenue growth and 42.5% op margin confirms that demand. BLZE is the small-cap, high-beta proxy for it.
Risks
- Convertible overhang: $175M of notes convert at $21.94, well above the current 13.73, so there is no near-term share dilution. Inference: convert-arbitrage hedge shorting may explain part of the post-Aug 19 bleed.
- Capex burden: capex is 55-65% of revenue, and the company is still GAAP op-loss (-9.8%). It may need more capital if CoreWeave capacity scales faster.
- Customer concentration: heavy reliance on CoreWeave (CRWV -11.4% in a month; GAAP EPS -1.14). CoreWeave also holds 4.19M warrants at $7.60, about 25% of the 1-mo flat price level; this is potential supply.
- Binary date: Q3 earnings, expected early November (date not yet verified). The guide is $44.4-44.8M.
- Small cap ($0.82B), high beta: every 2026 leg up came on a gap, and the bleeds between them were steep (-42.8% from the high).
- Insider sales: not checked, unknown.
Judgement
- The last real move (Aug 19 convertible gap-down) is mixed. Terms were benign: 0% coupon, conversion about 60% above today's price, capped call to $33.76. But the market kept selling another -18.7% after it, so the market did not treat it as a pure overreaction.
- The business is clearly better than the price implies, inference from the table: revenue growth is accelerating, FY guidance was raised, the 2027 B2 guide is >40%, and P/S is 5.3x vs 6.4x-42x for peers.
- Price has gone sideways for 4 weeks while AI-infra peers fell about 11%. That is an AI-storage name consolidating in a growing industry.
- BLZE is not the leader of the group. STX is the quality leader, so BLZE is a speculative small-cap satellite, not the core position.
Sources
- https://www.marketscreener.com/news/backblaze-shares-fall-after-150-million-convertible-senior-notes-offering-ce7859d2dc8df427
- https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/backblaze-stock-falls-on-150m-convertible-notes-offering-93CH-4865994
- https://www.storagenewsletter.com/2026/08/27/backblaze-announces-pricing-of-upsized-175-million-convertible-senior-notes-offering/
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001462056/000114036126034200/ef20080933_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/backblaze-q2-2026-slides-ai-strategy-drives-34-b2-growth-93CH-4832480
- https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/aug/03/backblaze-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-/
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001462056/000162828026044804/ex991backblazecoreweavepre.htm
- https://www.storagenewsletter.com/2026/07/06/backblaze-announces-five-year-multi-exabyte-data-storage-agreement-with-coreweave/
- https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/backblaze-announces-date-investor-day-2026-2026-07-30
- https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BLZE/
- https://nasdaq.com/articles/why-backblaze-stock-jumped-81-morning