Verdict: Mixed
Key finding: No company-specific catalyst for the 10/6-10/8 drop (90 -> 68) — it is AI-bio theme beta (theme -4% to -17% on 10/6, XBI lost its 100MA). Business facts unchanged since the Q2 raise (FY26 guide $1.595-1.605B, first positive adj EBITDA).
First dive on TEM. Run 2026-10-08 10:11 ET, market open; price_at_dive = live FMP quote 68.13 (-3.2%, day low 66.71).
Move
- FACTS - tape (prices_daily): 1y high close 103.25 (10/8/25), low close 41.55 (7/29/26). Mar-Jul 2026 base ~41-63; Aug breakout (hi 72.96), Sep run to 89.09 intraday (9/29). 9/14 low 57.72 = retest of base top before the run
- Oct: 10/5 83.55 -> 10/6 71.98 (-13.8%, opened 84.97 hi 87.99, vol 16.6M vs 7.2M avg = reversal/distribution day) -> 10/7 70.35 -> 10/8 68.13 live
- 50DMA 64.52, 200DMA 56.60. 12m -32%, 3m +23%, ATR 7.7%
- Mkt cap ~$11.9B, 8.3x TTM sales; GAAP loss TTM, FCF TTM -239M
Catalyst
- NEWS SEARCH: no company-specific catalyst found for 10/6-10/8 drop
- Earlier: 10/1 -6.1% (MarketBeat); ARK sold ~128k ARKK shares; CEO Lefkofsky sold $16.1M; insiders ~1.32M sh/$82.9M sold in 90 days (MarketBeat)
- Sep rally: 9/15 +11% as CEO spoke at Morgan Stanley healthcare conf, after $9.5M ARPA-H AI-cardiology grant (9/9) (TIKR). Consensus Hold, avg PT $71.05 (MarketBeat)
- FUNDAMENTALS (Q2 2026, 7/30, 8-K): rev $382.5M +22%; Diagnostics $289.3M +20% (~76% of rev); Data & Applications $93.2M +28%, Insights (data licensing) +36%, ~$200M new data/app licenses signed; first positive adj EBITDA $8.0M; GAAP NI $5.6M only via $98.5M unrealized securities gain (SBC $55.6M). FY26 guide raised to $1.595-1.605B rev, adj EBITDA ~$65M. $460M 0% converts due 2032; cash+securities $820.7M; Personalis acquisition $16.25/sh (~$1.5B EV) agreed 7/20
- INFERENCE: TEM is a diagnostics company with an AI/data-licensing kicker (~24% of rev), not a drug developer; it trades with the AI-bio theme, and this drop is theme beta, not company news
Sector
- Memory note 10/6: whole AI-bio theme -4% to -17% that day (TWST -16.7, DNA -16.1, TXG -15.6, SDGR -11.8), no news found; broad healthcare flat (XLV/PPH/LLY) => risk-off inside spec bio
- XBI now 147.51 (-1.8% live) vs 100MA 151.19: closed below it 10/6 (150.90) and 10/7 (150.23), lower today. XBI 10<20MA since 9/10, 20<50MA since 10/1
Risks
- Insider selling: CEO $16.1M; insiders ~1.32M sh/$82.9M in 90 days; ARK selling
- Theme momentum turned: XBI below 100MA, theme distribution day 10/6
- Binary date: Q3 earnings ~11/3 AMC (per 10/5 calendar note; unconfirmed). Earnings reactions historically muted (last 6 gaps -6.0 to +4.4%)
- Dilution/supply: $460M 0% converts due 2032; GAAP profit depends on a securities gain
Judgement
Mixed. Drop not justified by company news, but theme momentum has turned: XBI lost its 100MA, the theme had a distribution day on 10/6, and insiders keep selling.
Sources
- https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-tempus-ai-nasdaq-tem-shares-down-61-heres-why-2026-10-01/
- https://247wallst.com/cards/tempus-ai-tem-price-swing-01m491gfs75cfq4m8wky7jcyxt
- https://tradersunion.com/news/stocks/show/3611915-tempus-ai-slides-5-20percent-today/
- https://www.tikr.com/de/blog/heres-what-tempus-ais-ceo-said-at-a-healthcare-conference-that-made-the-stock-jump-11
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001717115/000119312526326083/tem-ex99_1.htm