Verdict: Mixed

Key finding: The drop started with a financing, not a broken business. On 10/13-10/14 Cipher sold $850M of 0% convertible notes (conversion ~$15.31) and swapped $165.9M of older notes for ~40.7M new shares, then fell into a sector-wide selloff in AI data-center and miner stocks. Its two big leases (AWS 300 MW and the Google-backed Fluidstack lease at Barber Lake) show no change in any source found. Still, CIFR fell the most in its group (-56.5% in a month), while it still reports shrinking revenue and negative gross margins until data-center rent shows up in results.

Scorecard

Ticker Rev last Q ($M) Rev YoY last Q Rev YoY prior Q Gross margin (last Q, trend) Op margin EPS last Q vs yr ago P/S Mkt cap 1-mo price %
CIFR 24.8 -43.0% -28.8% -131.1% (down from -105.9%) -292.5% -0.65 vs -0.12 18.2 $3.47B -56.5%
IREN 137.2 -26.8% -0.0% 75.7% (up from 72.4%) -452.2% -1.98 vs 0.69 15.6 $11.05B -42.4%
WULF 44.8 -6.0% -1.1% 72.3% (down from 93.1%) -313.7% -1.94 vs -0.05 37.7 $6.23B -23.9%
CORZ 164.2 +108.8% +44.9% 42.7% (up from 25.8%) -43.9% -3.32 vs -0.04 10.3 $4.53B -22.1%
APLD 341.9 +432.4% +406.6% 15.3% (down from 15.7%) -18.3% -0.82 vs -0.07 6.9 $5.86B -32.1%

Last quarter = June 2026 (APLD: fiscal quarter ended 8/31/2026). P/S = market cap / trailing revenue. 1-month = 9/25 to 10/26 close.

CIFR is the laggard of the group: it is the only one with a negative gross margin (-131%) and the steepest revenue decline (-43%), while CORZ and APLD already book fast-growing data-center revenue (+109% and +432%). It also fell the most over the month (-56.5% vs -22% to -42%). The whole group sold off hard, and CIFR P/S (18.2) still sits in the middle of the range (6.9-37.7).

Move

Catalyst

What the business rests on

Sector

Risks

Judgement

Mixed. The offering was a real reason to sell: new shares now, new debt, and likely hedging pressure, in a month when the market punished debt-funded AI buildouts. The -13% reset on 10/13 was justified. The slide after it is harder to justify: -32% below the offering price, -60% from 9/22, and worst in its group by 14+ points, with no company-specific bad news found. The AWS and Google-backed Fluidstack leases that re-rated the stock are unchanged, and Cipher locked in 0% money at a conversion price 35% above the reference. The reason is real, but the size of the fall looks stretched against peers. Momentum is still down (well below the 50-day ~$14.9 and 200-day ~$17.9), and the share overhang can keep weighing until results show data-center rent. Today's +7% is a sector bounce, not a company signal.

Sources