Verdict: Mixed
Key finding: A strong report, and the market sold the whole pop in two days.
- Record revenue $759M (+49%), above guidance; non-GAAP EPS $1.15 vs $0.94 expected; Q4 guided up again to $800-860M (+5% to +13% QoQ).
- Price: from the $58.07 high (10/29) to $49.71 on 10/30, below the $51.48 pre-report close.The stock is -65.5% from its June high ($144.22) and trades at about 10x the annualized Q4 non-GAAP EPS guide midpoint (my calculation: 49.71 / (1.23 x 4)).
Scorecard
| Ticker | Rev last Q ($M) | Rev YoY last Q | Rev YoY prior Q | Gross margin (last Q, trend) | Op margin | EPS last Q vs yr ago | P/S | Mkt cap | 1-mo price % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCTT | 759.0 | +48.8% | +24.3% | 16.9% (from 16.1%) | 7.1% | 0.85 vs -0.24 | 0.92 | $2.3B | -38.7% |
| ICHR | 294.8 | +22.7% | +4.8% | 13.9% (from 11.3%) | 2.4% | 0.03 vs -0.28 | 1.31 | $1.3B | -37.1% |
| MKSI | 1,248.0 | +28.3% | +15.2% | 47.7% (from 46.6%) | 20.1% | 2.41 vs 0.92 | 3.15 | $13.7B | -23.9% |
| AMAT | 9,115.0 | +34.0% | +8.3% | 50.3% (from 48.8%) | 33.7% | 3.17 vs 2.21 | 10.22 | $315.2B | -23.7% |
EPS = GAAP from our data (non-GAAP $1.15). Peer rows are their June / July quarter.
UCTT is the growth leader and the cheapest name in the semi-equipment supply group: revenue +48.8% (accelerating from +24.3%) vs AMAT +34.0%, MKSI +28.3% and ICHR +22.7%, at 0.92x sales vs 1.31-10.22x.
- Margins are the weakness: 16.9% gross / 7.1% op vs MKSI 47.7% / 20.1% and AMAT 50.3% / 33.7%.
- It is a subsystem contract manufacturer, not a toolmaker.
Move
- 52-week high $144.22 (6/30). The 3-month low area is $43.96-44.15 (10/22-10/23).
- 10/27 (report day, before the after-close release): +10.2% to $51.48 on 2.2M shares (~2x). Cause not found.
- 10/28: opened $53.94 (gap +4.8%), low $51.67, high $56.68, close $55.88 (+8.5%) on 4.06M shares (~3.8x).
- 10/29: high $58.07, close $54.70.
- 10/30: -9.1% to $49.71, low $47.19, below the pre-report close (gap filled).
- Below the 20-, 50- and 200-day ($57.39 / $66.61 / $74.58). 1-month -36.8%.
Catalyst
Q3 2026 (quarter to 9/25), released after the close on 10/27 (company 8-K):
- Revenue $759.0M: +18% QoQ, +49% YoY, above the $700-750M guide.
- Gross margin 16.9% GAAP / 17.3% non-GAAP. EPS $0.85 GAAP / $1.15 non-GAAP.
- Q4 guide: revenue $800-860M; GAAP EPS $1.02-1.26; non-GAAP $1.11-1.35.
- The CEO cited "accelerating customer demand" and "this next phase of AI-driven industry expansion," and warned of possible supply-chain component shortages.
Sector
- Semi-equipment peers in October (9/30 to 10/30): ICHR -37.1%, MKSI -23.9%, AMAT -23.7%; UCTT -38.7%.
- SOXX -19.1% since 10/7, -8.2% on 10/30.
Risks
- Capital structure: $600M of convertible notes issued in 2026 (plus $25.1M of capped calls), and $34.0M of at-the-market stock sales in nine months (alongside $40M of buybacks). Long-term debt $635M.
- Low margins: 17% gross.
- Cycle / sector: semi-cap names are down 24-39% in a month, and UCTT trades as a high-beta piece of that group.
- Supply-chain shortages flagged by management.
- Insider sales: none in our data since August.
- Next binary: Q4 report, about late Feb 2027 (inference).
Judgement
Mixed.
- The report justified the pop: growth is accelerating, the guide went up again, and the stock trades at ~10x forward run-rate earnings.
- But the market sold the whole move inside two sessions and closed below the pre-report price.
For now the semi-equipment selloff outweighs the numbers.