Verdict: Mixed
Key finding: The best quarter in the group on growth and margin:
- Revenue +78.5% to $197.1M (+37.5% QoQ); gross margin 68.3% (from 58.0% in Q2).
- Backlog $406M (+166% YoY), and $100M of bookings in the first two weeks of Q4, including a large second-generation VPD order from its lead customer.The stock did not trend on it. It swung between $168.59 and $224.99 in eight sessions (with a -15.7% day on 10/22) and closed 10/30 at $191.09, flat with the pre-report close and -50.1% from the June high.
Scorecard
| Ticker | Rev last Q ($M) | Rev YoY last Q | Rev YoY prior Q | Gross margin (last Q, trend) | Op margin | EPS last Q vs yr ago | P/S | Mkt cap | 1-mo price % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VICR | 197.1 | +78.5% | +1.6% | 68.3% (from 57.5%) | 36.6% | 1.33 vs 0.63 | 15.31 | $8.6B | -33.9% |
| MPWR | 1,202.4 | +63.1% | +47.6% | 55.4% (from 55.1%) | 29.8% | 5.51 vs 3.71 | 15.66 | $58.5B | -10.1% |
| VRT | 4,312.8 | +61.2% | +24.1% | 38.1% (from 37.8%) | 22.8% | 1.95 vs 1.02 | 6.92 | $90.8B | -3.7% |
EPS = GAAP from our data.
VICR is the margin leader of the AI-power group, with the most erratic growth: 68.3% gross / 36.6% op margin vs MPWR 55.4% / 29.8% and VRT 38.1% / 22.8%.
- Growth jumped to +78.5%, but from +1.6% the quarter before.
- MPWR grows more steadily (+47.6% to +63.1%) at the same price-to-sales (~15.5x).
Move
- 52-week high $382.65 (6/30). 10/1 high $331.00, close $308.59.
- Most of the October drop came before the report: 10/1 close $308.59 to the 10/19 close $190.68 (-38.2%).
- 10/20 (report, before the open): opened $190.11 (-0.3%), low $183.91, high $207.50, close $204.14 (+7.1%).
- 10/21: high $224.99, close $213.42.
- 10/22: -15.7% to $179.99. 10/23: low $168.59.
- 10/26-10/28: rebound to $216.65 (high $221.92).
- 10/30: -7.5% to $191.09.
- Lower highs: $331.00 (10/1), $224.99 (10/21), $221.92 (10/28). The 20-, 50- and 200-day ($229 / $225 / $227) all sit above price.
Catalyst
Q3 2026, released before the open on 10/20 (company 8-K):
- Product + royalty revenue $197.1M (+37.5% QoQ, +78.5% YoY). Net income $63.3M; diluted EPS $1.33. FMP consensus was $1.32; other outlets report a $0.04-0.06 miss (sources conflict).
- Gross margin 68.3% (Q2: 58.0%). Operating cash flow $69.7M; capex $16.1M.
- Backlog $406M (+7% QoQ; $153M a year ago).
- Q4 so far: $100M of bookings in the first two weeks, including a large 2nd-gen VPD order from the lead customer.
- Q4 outlook (one summary): ~10% sequential product revenue growth and at least $43M of royalties.
- Opex of $62.5M includes contingency fees to law firms enforcing Vicor patents.
Sector
- AI-power peers in October: MPWR -10.1%, VRT -3.7%; VICR -33.9% (9/30 to 10/30).
- SMH -7.0% on 10/30.
Risks
- Insider selling: 41 sales from 8/3 to 10/2, $14.38M total, the heaviest of the ten names reviewed this week.
- Royalty / IP dependence: part of revenue is patent royalties backed by litigation (contingency legal fees), so it is lumpy.
- Lead-customer concentration: a large share of bookings comes from one customer (not named in the release).
- Volatility: ±15% days and lower highs since 10/1.
- Valuation: 15.3x sales.
- Next binary: Q4 report, about late Feb 2027 (inference).
Judgement
Mixed.
- The quarter is excellent: growth, margin, backlog and early Q4 bookings.
- But the stock has no direction: a +7% reaction, a -16% day two sessions later, then a lower high.
- Heavy insider selling before the report and a lumpy royalty stream make the price harder to trust than the numbers.