Verdict: Overreaction

Key finding: A real revenue beat on a stock at its 52-week low. Q3 revenue $76.2M vs about $62.5M expected, with AI lease revenue $63.0M, or 83% of the total. The $709.9M net income is not operating profit: it comes from a $728.4M non-cash warrant gain, and operating loss widened to $88.2M. TeraWulf also sold its Texas joint venture, so the Texas moratorium fear that hit the group on 11/5 does not reach its main campuses, and two days earlier it secured Google credit support for the Anthropic project. Project debt for that campus has not closed yet.

Scorecard

Ticker Rev last Q ($M) Rev YoY last Q Rev YoY prior Q Gross margin (last Q, trend) Op margin EPS last Q vs yr ago P/S Mkt cap 1-mo price %
WULF 76.2 +50.7% -6.0% 67.0% (from 72.3%) -115.7% -0.03 vs -1.13 26.4 $5.0B -31.8%
CORZ 232.9 +187.1% +108.8% 52.9% (from 42.7%) +31.1% 0.47 vs -0.46 6.2 $3.7B -31.4%
APLD 341.9 +432.4% +406.6% 15.3% (from 15.7%) -18.3% -0.82 vs -0.07 5.0 $4.3B -42.6%
IREN 137.2 -26.8% -0.02% 75.7% (from 72.4%) -452.2% -1.98 vs 0.69 10.3 $7.3B -55.5%
CIFR 26.7 -62.8% -43.0% -172.4% (from -131.1%) -271.1% -0.22 vs -0.01 17.3 $2.5B -64.1%

Prices, P/S and market cap are at the 11/5 close, before today's release. WULF's Q3 is from its 8-K; gross margin excludes depreciation. WULF's EPS in both periods is dominated by warrant fair-value swings. IREN's row is its June quarter, the latest in our data. APLD's row is its August quarter. All five are power-backed AI hosting landlords, most of them former bitcoin miners; revenue mix differs while they convert.

WULF is middle of the group: growth well behind CORZ and APLD, and the highest P/S at 26.4x. Growth is accelerating as leases start (HPC lease revenue +774% to $63.0M, mining -69% to $13.2M), and its 1-month drop is the second smallest here, just behind CORZ.

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Judgement

Overreaction (inference), on the 11/5 drop. A 13.85% fall to a 52-week low came one day after Google credit support and one day before a 22% revenue beat, with the Texas JV already sold. The longer slide has real reasons: wider operating losses, heavy debt, rising share count and a financing still to close. This remains a build-and-finance story with negative EBITDA, not a proven earner, and the group is trading on policy headlines, so company facts may not decide the next few sessions.

Sources