Verdict: Mixed

Key finding: The recent swings (-9.8% on Nov 5, +8.1% on Nov 9, -6.9% on Nov 10) came with no Recursion news: they track the AI-drug-discovery basket and a market-wide selloff (S&P 500 -4.4% on Nov 5). The company news this month was positive (REC-4881 data, runway into 2029), but nothing hard is dated before 2H 2027, and 61.54M new shares at $3.25 (Oct 16) add supply. RXRX is the group laggard: -12.7% in a month vs SDGR +22.4%.

Scorecard

Ticker Rev last Q ($M) Rev YoY last Q Rev YoY prior Q Gross margin (last Q, trend) Op margin EPS last Q vs yr ago P/S (TTM) Mkt cap 1-mo price %
RXRX 18.6 +258.5% -59.9% 45.9% (Q2 -49.8%; not meaningful, collaboration revenue) -664% -0.22 vs -0.36 32.4x $2.21B -12.7%
SDGR 64.5 +18.7% +7.5% 59.3% (up from 55.1%) -40.5% -0.50 vs -0.45 9.0x $2.42B +22.4%
ABCL 10.6 +18.8% -76.3% — -501% -0.13 vs -0.19 58.2x $3.95B -0.4%
RLAY 0.0 — -48.3% — — (op loss $90.2M) -0.37 vs -0.43 419x $4.34B +14.0%
ABSI (Q2; Q3 not in data) 0.3 -46.4% -81.8% — -10,742% -0.21 vs -0.24 1,086x $1.69B +6.3%

1-mo price % = close 10/9 to close 11/9. Market cap = live on 11/10.

RXRX is the laggard of the group on price (-12.7% in a month while SDGR +22.4% and RLAY +14.0%). On the business it sits in the middle: second-largest revenue ($18.6M), but it is lumpy milestone money, and P/S is 32x vs SDGR 9x.
Only SDGR has a recurring revenue base and a shrinking operating loss (-40.5% from -70.6%). The other names are platform/pipeline stories priced on clinical hopes. The +258.5% YoY jump at RXRX comes mainly from one $10M Sanofi milestone, not a growth trend (prior quarter -59.9%).

Move

Catalyst

No company-specific news on Nov 5, Nov 9 or Nov 10 (searched news, the company IR page and EDGAR). The only EDGAR filing on Nov 10 is a Schedule 13G (passive ownership report).

The company news that frames the stock:

Sector

Risks

Judgement

Mixed. The day-to-day swings (Nov 5 -9.8%, Nov 9 +8.1%, Nov 10 -6.9%) are basket and market beta with no Recursion news. They carry no information about the company, so reading them as justified or as an overreaction does not apply. The underperformance vs peers has real reasons, so it is closer to justified: a large new supply of shares at $3.25, good but small-sample data, and the next hard catalyst more than a year away. The Q3 package itself was positive: runway into 2029, opex cut, positive REC-4881 data, a Sanofi option. So the -8.7% two-day reaction to it reads more like sell-the-news and supply than bad news (inference). The business did not get worse this month. The stock got cheaper because the group fell and the catalyst calendar is empty.

Sources