Verdict: Justified

Key finding: Satellogic beat Q3 revenue consensus by ~29% ($16.0M vs ~$12.4M, +342% YoY), posted a second straight positive adjusted EBITDA quarter, and after quarter end signed its largest-ever sovereign deal (~$37M for three in-orbit satellites, about 2.3x the quarter's revenue). Two caveats: the headline EPS beat ($0.14) is mostly a $30M non-cash remeasurement gain, and revenue was flat quarter on quarter (+0.8%).

Scorecard

Ticker Rev last Q ($M) Rev YoY last Q Rev YoY prior Q Gross margin (last Q, trend) Op margin EPS last Q vs yr ago P/S Mkt cap 1-mo price %
SATL (Q3 Sep) 16.0 +341.5% +258.5% 77.9% (down from 82.3% in Q2, up from 67.8% a year ago) -14.2% $0.14 vs $0.03* 12.6x $558M** -24.3%
BKSY (Q3 Sep) 42.8 +118.4% +50.1% 78.8% (up from 72.8%) +1.0% $0.10 vs -$0.44* 7.4x $976M +14.0%
PL (Q2 Jul) 116.1 +58.1% +42.1% 56.6% (up from 53.5%) -11.6% -$0.03 vs -$0.07 12.8x $4.86B -16.9%
SPIR (Q3 Sep) 18.0 +42.1% -5.9% 46.1% (up from 34.1%) -112.0% -$0.52 vs -$0.61 5.4x $366M -9.0%

P/S = market cap / trailing-12-month revenue. 1-mo = 10/9 close to 11/10 close. SATL and BKSY EPS include non-cash warrant/derivative remeasurement gains. *The SATL 10-Q cover shows 154.1M shares as of 11/4, which is ~$601M at the $3.90 11/10 close (13.6x TTM sales).

SATL is the fastest grower of the group (+342% YoY vs BKSY +118%), but BlackSky is the quality leader: the only positive operating margin (+1.0% vs SATL -14.2%) on 2.7x the revenue, at 7.4x sales vs SATL 12.6x.
Growth is accelerating at all four names (every last-quarter YoY is above the prior quarter). SATL is priced in line with Planet Labs, above BKSY and SPIR, and was the weakest 1-month performer going into its report.

Move

Catalyst

Q3 2026 results (11/10, after the close):
- Revenue $16.0M, +342% YoY (from $3.6M). Q2 was $15.9M, so +0.8% QoQ. Consensus was ~$12.4M per Investing.com.
- Space Systems $9.5M (59%): in-orbit delivery of the second satellite under the $18M CEiiA (Portugal) agreement. Data & Analytics $6.6M (more than 2x YoY, down modestly from Q2 on lower non-cash Palantir revenue).
- Gross margin excluding depreciation 78% (68% a year ago). Operating loss -$2.3M (vs -$8.1M). Adjusted EBITDA +$1.2M, the second straight positive quarter (vs -$4.9M a year ago).
- GAAP net income $28.3M includes a $30M non-cash gain from remeasuring warrant and earnout liabilities. Management said these moves are not indicative of operating performance.
- Cash $106.5M. Free cash flow -$11.7M. Capex $6.2M (Merlin and NewSat production).
- Remaining performance obligations (backlog) $66.9M at 9/30, down from $80.7M at 6/30 as CEiiA revenue was recognized. ~$33.4M is expected over the next 12 months.
- No numeric guidance. Qualified pipeline is over $550M (management: not contracted, not guidance).

After quarter end:
- ~$37M sovereign agreement, the largest to date: in-orbit transfer of one NewSat Mark V and two Mark VI satellites (two already in orbit). Transfers are expected by mid-2027, subject to contractual and regulatory milestones. The customer is not named. 2026 sovereign deals now total ~$67M across three agreements. Coverage differs on whether the deal adds to Q4 revenue or to Q4 backlog.
- HEO three-year non-Earth imaging agreement (announced 10/29), with a seven-figure minimum annual commitment.
- Merlin.01 launched 10/1. More Merlin satellites are planned for H1 2027; no Merlin revenue before H2 2027, most impact from 2028.

The 11/6-11/9 run: no Satellogic-specific news found. It came with a space-sector rebound after the 11/5 selloff (11/9 drivers per 24/7 Wall St.: NASA lunar delivery pool awards, the AST SpaceMobile/Rakuten Japan JV, a tech rebound). The closest earth-observation peer, BlackSky, reported a strong Q3 on 11/5 (revenue ~$42.8M, roughly 2x YoY, raised full-year outlook). A read-through from BlackSky to SATL is inference.

Sector

Risks

Judgement

Justified. The gap rests on real numbers: a ~29% revenue beat, a second positive adjusted EBITDA quarter, and a contract worth ~2.3x the quarter's revenue. It also starts from a washed-out base: the stock was 73% below its May high and below its 50- and 200-day averages, and the reported pre-open level sits near the 50-day average, still below the 200-day. Two things temper it: the EPS headline is non-cash, and revenue is lumpy (flat QoQ, two customers ~79%). The +37% run on 11/6-11/9 before the report was sector beta, not company news.

Sources