Verdict: Justified

Since last dive

Key finding: Nebius beat Q3 (revenue $980.8M vs $907.5M expected, +571% YoY; adj. EBITDA $465.8M vs $351.8M) and guided 2027 revenue to $12-13B, above the ~$11.98B consensus. But it moved 2026 revenue to the low end of $3.0-3.4B (about 11% under the $3.37B consensus, implying Q4 growth of only +5.8% QoQ after +68.4% in Q3), dropped ARR as a metric, and raised spending: about $27B of capex in 2026 (above the $20-25B range) and $40-45B in 2027. The drop gives back a +15.4% rally made the day before on CoreWeave's beat-and-raise.

Scorecard

Ticker Rev last Q ($M) Rev YoY last Q Rev YoY prior Q Gross margin (last Q, trend) Op margin EPS last Q vs yr ago P/S Mkt cap 1-mo price %
NBIS (Sep Q) 980.8 +571.3% +454.0% 77.6% (up from 77.1%) +5.1% (prior Q -30.2%) -0.13 vs -0.50 17.0x $37.1B -30.0%
CRWV (Sep Q) 3,661.0 +168.3% +112.5% 67.7% (up from 65.9%) +5.7% -1.27 vs -0.22 3.4x $33.5B -26.0%
IREN (Sep Q) 228.0 -5.1% -26.8% 79.8% (up from 75.7%) -81.6% -0.66 vs +1.08 12.1x $8.4B -40.8%
APLD (Aug Q) 341.9 +432.4% +406.6% 15.3% (down from 15.7%) -18.3% -0.82 vs -0.07 6.3x $5.4B -24.4%
ORCL (Aug Q) 19,345.0 +29.6% +20.6% 60.0% (down from 65.2%) +34.8% 1.56 vs 1.01 5.4x $388.2B -9.2%

NBIS Q3 figures come from the 11/12 press release (gross margin = revenue less cost of revenues excluding D&A, same basis as prior quarters; EPS = continuing operations, year-ago -0.50 on the same basis). P/S = market cap / trailing four quarters of revenue including Q3 ($2,189.8M). 1-month = 10/9 to 11/11 close. At the 292.9M shares outstanding in the release, the market cap is about $45.3B and P/S about 20.7x.

NBIS is the growth leader of the group and the most expensive: revenue growth sped up from +454% to +571% YoY and operating margin turned positive (+5.1%), at 17.0x sales vs CoreWeave 3.4x.

Growth is speeding up at NBIS, CRWV, APLD and ORCL, and every name fell 9-41% over the month. The table looks backward; the 11/12 question is the forward guide and the spending needed to reach it.

Move

Catalyst

Q3 2026, reported 11/12 before the open (press release; outlook per the Newsquawk and Reuters summaries).

Results:
- Revenue $980.8M (+571% YoY, +68.4% QoQ) vs $907.5M LSEG consensus, an 8.1% beat. AI Cloud revenue $973.8M (+643%).
- Adj. EBITDA $465.8M vs $351.8M expected (+32.4%). Operating income +$50.4M vs -$130.2M a year ago, the first positive operating quarter.
- Net loss from continuing operations -$37.5M (-$0.13/share) vs -$119.6M (-$0.50).
- Q3 customer prepayments covered more than 100% of the capex tied to those contracts (Reuters). Deferred revenue $9.41B at 9/30.

Outlook, the part that turned the stock:
- 2026 revenue: now expected at the low end of $3.0-3.4B, vs $3.37B consensus. $3.0B less the $1,962.1M booked in nine months implies Q4 revenue of about $1,037.9M, +5.8% QoQ.
- ARR: $6.4B at end-September; the company "no longer sees ARR as the right measure of the business". The target had been $7-9B by end-2026, reaffirmed on the Q2 call in August.
- 2026 capex about $27B (Q2-call range: $20-25B), "as it invests in capacity for 2027, in particular at owned sites". Nine-month capex was $15.43B, so the guide implies about $11.6B in Q4.
- 2027: revenue $12-13B (vs $11.98B expected), capex $40-45B, prepayments plus financing against existing contracts with investment-grade customers expected to cover 75-85% of capex, pre-tax breakeven by end-2027.

The earnings call was set for 8:00 ET; nothing from the call is included here.

Sector

Risks

Judgement

Justified.

Sources