Research & Analysis
Market structure, seasonality, and trading edge — quantified.
Earnings Movers — August 14, 2026
13 stocks moved 20%+ on earnings today (4 up, 9 down). Which reactions were justified?
Earnings Movers — August 13, 2026
13 stocks moved 20%+ on earnings today (6 up, 7 down). Which reactions were justified?
Earnings Movers — August 12, 2026
6 stocks moved 20%+ on earnings today (3 up, 3 down). Which reactions were justified?
Earnings Movers — August 11, 2026
3 stocks moved 20%+ on earnings today (1 up, 2 down). Which reactions were justified?
Earnings Movers — August 10, 2026
5 stocks moved 20%+ on earnings today (0 up, 5 down). Which reactions were justified?
Earnings Movers — August 7, 2026
17 stocks moved 20%+ on earnings today (9 up, 8 down). Which reactions were justified?
August Second Half: The Bear Market Myth vs. 16 Years of /ES Data
Everyone fears the back half of August. The base rate says 68% of the time, you're leaving money on the table by hiding.
September: The One Month That's Actually Bearish — But Not for the Reason You Think
September has a 50% win rate in /ES futures but a -0.78% average return. The edge is in asymmetry, not direction.
Theme Leaders: A PEG/TAM Valuation Pass — Cheap, Fair, or Rich?
Companion to the correction split: PEG/TAM-Adj scoring on 47 theme leaders across the same 11 themes. 10 Very Cheap, 3 Cheap, 8 Fair, 4 Fair-Rich, 1 Rich, 14 Very Rich, 7 Option-like. Fixed the on-file TSM and RCAT bugs, then found a systemic price_to_sales issue that flipped Symbotic from Very Cheap to Very Rich after cross-checking (44x understated on file).
Semis, Quantum, Rare Earth, Nuclear, Space, Robotics: Broken Thesis or Just Oversold?
95 names down 25-88% off 52-week highs while the index sits near all-time highs. Researched, name-by-name split: 44 intact/accelerating, 40 mixed/early-stage, 11 genuinely broken. Now includes Defense Drones, Optical Interconnect, Power/AI Data Center Demand, Security Software, and Cloud Software.
Market-Wide Gap Report: April–July 2026, Every 15%+ Move Outside Healthcare
349 names across 8 sectors (Technology, Industrials, Financial Services, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Energy, Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, Utilities) gapped 15%+ in 14 weeks — 217 up, 132 down. Full sector/industry breakdown with earnings-date flags.
Technology Sector Gap Report: April–July 2026, Every 15%+ Move by Industry
102 Technology names gapped 15%+ in 14 weeks — 65 up, 37 down. Full industry breakdown with market cap, valuation, and the confirmed catalyst behind every large-cap move.
Earnings Gap-Up Review: April 9 – July 8, 2026 (58 Names, 20%+ Gaps)
Follow-through ratio analysis — which post-earnings pops kept running, and which round-tripped. Anchored on the BAND trade.
July 4th Week: 81% Win Rate in /ES Futures (2010–2025)
How the holiday calendar creates one of the most consistent seasonal edges in S&P 500 futures